Ten Higher Highs on the Weekly S&P
By
Rennie on Thursday, February 3rd, 2011 at 12:40 pm
With the S&P500 posting its tenth consecutive week of higher highs, I thought it would be helpful to look back at previous instances when the stock market entered into a similarly strong uptrend. In the table below is every instance since 1930 in which the market posted ten straight higher weekly highs (S&P data is used from 1962-present, when our high-low-close data for the SPX begins, Dow Industrials data is utilized prior to ’62). Notice that in virtually every case, the persistent strength led to further upside over the intermediate-term…
TENTH WEEK OF HIGHER HIGHS
02/04/11… ???
11/05/10… Higher weekly S&P close five weeks later
06/08/07… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
10/20/06… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
01/30/04… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
03/27/98… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
06/27/97… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
06/16/95… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
12/18/92… Higher weekly S&P close seven weeks later
06/02/89… Higher weekly S&P close six weeks later
12/20/85… Higher weekly S&P close six weeks later
10/18/68… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
10/08/65… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
05/17/63… Higher weekly S&P close three weeks later (*)
12/31/54… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
04/30/54… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
09/07/51… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
02/06/43… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
09/14/35… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
06/10/33… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
The sweet spot seems to be 4-7 weeks after this pattern initially triggers. In 18 out of 19 occurrences the S&P500 posted a subsequently higher weekly close (above the setup week’s close) at some point over the next 4-7 weeks. On the one occurrence that didn’t hold true (5/17/63) the S&P was still higher three weeks later, so ten higher weekly highs has been a reliable indication of further strength over the intermediate-term. A pullback over the initial few weeks was more likely than not but certainly wasn’t a given (7 of the 19 occurrences didn’t see any lower weekly close over the next month). This pattern points to a weekly SPX close above this week’s settlement in the March 4th-25th time frame.
Ten Higher Highs on the Weekly S&P
By Rennie on Thursday, February 3rd, 2011 at 12:40 pmWith the S&P500 posting its tenth consecutive week of higher highs, I thought it would be helpful to look back at previous instances when the stock market entered into a similarly strong uptrend. In the table below is every instance since 1930 in which the market posted ten straight higher weekly highs (S&P data is used from 1962-present, when our high-low-close data for the SPX begins, Dow Industrials data is utilized prior to ’62). Notice that in virtually every case, the persistent strength led to further upside over the intermediate-term…
TENTH WEEK OF HIGHER HIGHS
02/04/11… ???
11/05/10… Higher weekly S&P close five weeks later
06/08/07… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
10/20/06… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
01/30/04… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
03/27/98… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
06/27/97… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
06/16/95… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
12/18/92… Higher weekly S&P close seven weeks later
06/02/89… Higher weekly S&P close six weeks later
12/20/85… Higher weekly S&P close six weeks later
10/18/68… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
10/08/65… Higher weekly S&P close four weeks later
05/17/63… Higher weekly S&P close three weeks later (*)
12/31/54… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
04/30/54… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
09/07/51… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
02/06/43… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
09/14/35… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
06/10/33… Higher weekly Dow close four weeks later
The sweet spot seems to be 4-7 weeks after this pattern initially triggers. In 18 out of 19 occurrences the S&P500 posted a subsequently higher weekly close (above the setup week’s close) at some point over the next 4-7 weeks. On the one occurrence that didn’t hold true (5/17/63) the S&P was still higher three weeks later, so ten higher weekly highs has been a reliable indication of further strength over the intermediate-term. A pullback over the initial few weeks was more likely than not but certainly wasn’t a given (7 of the 19 occurrences didn’t see any lower weekly close over the next month). This pattern points to a weekly SPX close above this week’s settlement in the March 4th-25th time frame.