NYSE TICK Posts Highest Intraday Low Since November 4th

Along with the fact that the S&P500 closed at a fresh six-month high, a pattern that typically translates into limited upside potential the following session (see this December 10th column), NYSE TICK barely traded below -500 on Tuesday. It only dropped under for a few minutes late in the afternoon, with the -614 intraday low representing the highest low since November 4th.  Sessions completely devoid of selling pressure are usually good indicators of limited upside the following session. In the table below is each instance since 2005 in which the NYSE TICK posted its highest intraday low in fifteen sessions and the S&P500 closed at a 15-day high. Out of 43 occurrences, the S&P gained more than 0.5% the next day only once (2%) and more than 0.3% only four times (9%). That’s well below the S&P’s 35% random chance for a next-day gain of more than 0.3% in the same time frame and points to a likely area of resistance around SPX 1311.50 on Wednesday, which is likely to hold for the rest of the week if the study discussed earlier today proves accurate.

SPX 15-day High, NYSE TICK Highest Low in 15 Days
02/01/11… S&P500 ???
12/22/10… S&P500 -0.2% next day
12/02/10… S&P500 +0.3% next day
11/04/10… S&P500 +0.4% next day
09/24/10… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/20/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
07/26/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/15/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/05/10… S&P500 -0.0% next day
02/18/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
12/22/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
11/09/09… S&P500 -0.0% next day
10/19/09… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/22/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
09/16/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day (*)
05/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% next day
04/09/09… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/05/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/15/08… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/30/07… S&P500 +0.0% next day
05/02/07… S&P500 +0.4% next day
04/05/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
01/24/07… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/16/06… S&P500 -0.4% next day
10/12/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/04/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/03/06… S&P500 -0.7% next day
06/29/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/05/06… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/16/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.9% next day
11/02/05… S&P500 +0.4% next day
09/09/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day
08/02/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
05/27/05… S&P500 -0.6% next day
05/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/04/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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