The Curious Case of the Disappearing Volume
By
Rennie on Thursday, January 27th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Did you notice that volume was unusually light in December? It’s traditional to see a holiday slow-down, but not to the degree that we saw last month. The 20-day moving average of NASDAQ volume hit 1.61 billion, its lowest level since September 2006. It’s very unusual to see average volume hit a two-year low (much less a four-year low). It’s only occurred three times in the history of the NASDAQ – January 2009, January 2003 and September 1990. All represented excellent buying opportunities from a long-term perspective as the trough in volume coincided with a speculative washout. Now you can add a fourth date to that list, December 30th 2010, which is curious when you consider that unlike the previous three occurrences, there was no major selloff preceding the drop-off in volume.
Here’s a look at all 13 instances in which the 20-day average of NASDAQ volume hit a one-year low (for the first time in a month or more)…
NASDAQ Volume 20day Avg at One-Year Low
12/29/10… Nasdaq ??? three months later, ??? in six months
12/30/08… Nasdaq +4.2% three months later, +18.6% in six months
08/26/04… Nasdaq +11.8% three months later, +12.7% in six months
02/26/03… Nasdaq +15.6% three months later, +33.4% in six months
12/31/02… Nasdaq +2.6% three months later, +20.2% in six months
09/13/02… Nasdaq +5.9% three months later, +1.1% in six months
09/09/96… Nasdaq +13.2% three months later, +14.0% in six months
08/27/92… Nasdaq +14.1% three months later, +17.6% in six months
09/10/90… Nasdaq -4.6% three months later, +19.7% in six months
08/24/88… Nasdaq -2.3% three months later, +6.9% in six months
05/16/88… Nasdaq +1.4% three months later, +2.5% in six months
06/15/84… Nasdaq +6.9% three months later, +1.3% in six months
06/14/82… Nasdaq +5.6% three months later, +37.2% in six months
09/21/81… Nasdaq +5.8% three months later, -8.8% in six months
Some of Wayne Whaley’s Thrust indicators are now available in the interactive charting section. This includes ADT (Advances/Declines), UDT (Up/Down Volume), NHNLT (New Highs/Lows) and SPT/NDT. You can read more about these indicators via his Planes, Trains & Automobiles paper (PDF). The charts default to showing the 5 and 20-day versions of each indicator, but you can customize it by adding or subtracting other versions – just click on the appropriate indicator within the chart’s legend to turn off/on the indicator’s appearance.
The Thrust indicators utilize market internals for either NYSE, NASDAQ or SPX Components. Those based on S&P500 stocks currently show a very limited history, but I’m pleased to announce I’ll soon be able to fill in those S&P charts back to 2000 as I wrap up my S&P500 component database.
With some charts you really have to see the long-term dataset to get the proper perspective. Interactive charts for the Last Hour indicator and Total Issues on the NYSE have been extended to 20 years. Both, incidentally, are still bearish long-term, which will matter again some day.
If you’re interested in studying market action around Fed days, see this interactive chart highlighting every session with a regularly scheduled FOMC announcement since 2000.
The Curious Case of the Disappearing Volume
By Rennie on Thursday, January 27th, 2011 at 3:29 pmDid you notice that volume was unusually light in December? It’s traditional to see a holiday slow-down, but not to the degree that we saw last month. The 20-day moving average of NASDAQ volume hit 1.61 billion, its lowest level since September 2006. It’s very unusual to see average volume hit a two-year low (much less a four-year low). It’s only occurred three times in the history of the NASDAQ – January 2009, January 2003 and September 1990. All represented excellent buying opportunities from a long-term perspective as the trough in volume coincided with a speculative washout. Now you can add a fourth date to that list, December 30th 2010, which is curious when you consider that unlike the previous three occurrences, there was no major selloff preceding the drop-off in volume.
Here’s a look at all 13 instances in which the 20-day average of NASDAQ volume hit a one-year low (for the first time in a month or more)…
NASDAQ Volume 20day Avg at One-Year Low
12/29/10… Nasdaq ??? three months later, ??? in six months
12/30/08… Nasdaq +4.2% three months later, +18.6% in six months
08/26/04… Nasdaq +11.8% three months later, +12.7% in six months
02/26/03… Nasdaq +15.6% three months later, +33.4% in six months
12/31/02… Nasdaq +2.6% three months later, +20.2% in six months
09/13/02… Nasdaq +5.9% three months later, +1.1% in six months
09/09/96… Nasdaq +13.2% three months later, +14.0% in six months
08/27/92… Nasdaq +14.1% three months later, +17.6% in six months
09/10/90… Nasdaq -4.6% three months later, +19.7% in six months
08/24/88… Nasdaq -2.3% three months later, +6.9% in six months
05/16/88… Nasdaq +1.4% three months later, +2.5% in six months
06/15/84… Nasdaq +6.9% three months later, +1.3% in six months
06/14/82… Nasdaq +5.6% three months later, +37.2% in six months
09/21/81… Nasdaq +5.8% three months later, -8.8% in six months
Some of Wayne Whaley’s Thrust indicators are now available in the interactive charting section. This includes ADT (Advances/Declines), UDT (Up/Down Volume), NHNLT (New Highs/Lows) and SPT/NDT. You can read more about these indicators via his Planes, Trains & Automobiles paper (PDF). The charts default to showing the 5 and 20-day versions of each indicator, but you can customize it by adding or subtracting other versions – just click on the appropriate indicator within the chart’s legend to turn off/on the indicator’s appearance.
The Thrust indicators utilize market internals for either NYSE, NASDAQ or SPX Components. Those based on S&P500 stocks currently show a very limited history, but I’m pleased to announce I’ll soon be able to fill in those S&P charts back to 2000 as I wrap up my S&P500 component database.
With some charts you really have to see the long-term dataset to get the proper perspective. Interactive charts for the Last Hour indicator and Total Issues on the NYSE have been extended to 20 years. Both, incidentally, are still bearish long-term, which will matter again some day.
If you’re interested in studying market action around Fed days, see this interactive chart highlighting every session with a regularly scheduled FOMC announcement since 2000.