SPY Stages Intraday Rebound Through Steenbarger Pivot
By
Rennie on Wednesday, January 5th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Interesting to note that SPY traded below Steenbarger’s S2 (volatility-adjusted price targets) this morning and is currently trading above R2 at 127.26. We’ve seen SPY violate S2 and then turn around to close over R2 a total of 29 times since SPY’s inception, all of which are listed below along with the market’s performance the following session…
SPY Trades Below Steenbarger S2, Closes Above R2
08/27/10… S&P500 -1.5% next session
07/20/10… S&P500 -1.3% next session
12/14/09… S&P500 -0.5% next session
12/16/08… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -5.0% next session
05/06/08… S&P500 -1.8% next session
01/23/08… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next session
07/11/07… S&P500 +1.6% next session (*)
06/08/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
05/30/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
04/12/07… S&P500 +0.5% next session
03/22/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
11/11/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
11/10/05… S&P500 +0.3% next session
10/19/05… S&P500 -1.8% next session
07/20/05… S&P500 -0.6% next session
04/12/05… S&P500 -1.2% next session
12/09/04… S&P500 +0.1% next session
02/20/02… S&P500 -2.1% next session
01/02/02… S&P500 +1.1% next session (*)
10/25/01… S&P500 -0.2% next session
05/16/01… S&P500 +0.2% next session
05/04/01… S&P500 -0.9% next session
01/03/01… S&P500 -1.1% next session
05/24/00… S&P500 -1.7% next session
02/15/00… S&P500 -1.5% next session
04/12/99… S&P500 -0.6% next session
10/28/97… S&P500 -0.3% next session
In 21 out of 29 cases, or 72% of the time, SPY closed lower the following session, significantly above the 47% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame. Only three cases led to an S&P up more than 0.5% the next day, while fifteen led to an S&P down more than 0.5%. To qualify, SPY needs to close above R2 at 127.26 today.
SPY Stages Intraday Rebound Through Steenbarger Pivot
By Rennie on Wednesday, January 5th, 2011 at 1:30 pmInteresting to note that SPY traded below Steenbarger’s S2 (volatility-adjusted price targets) this morning and is currently trading above R2 at 127.26. We’ve seen SPY violate S2 and then turn around to close over R2 a total of 29 times since SPY’s inception, all of which are listed below along with the market’s performance the following session…
SPY Trades Below Steenbarger S2, Closes Above R2
08/27/10… S&P500 -1.5% next session
07/20/10… S&P500 -1.3% next session
12/14/09… S&P500 -0.5% next session
12/16/08… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -5.0% next session
05/06/08… S&P500 -1.8% next session
01/23/08… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next session
07/11/07… S&P500 +1.6% next session (*)
06/08/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
05/30/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
04/12/07… S&P500 +0.5% next session
03/22/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
11/11/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
11/10/05… S&P500 +0.3% next session
10/19/05… S&P500 -1.8% next session
07/20/05… S&P500 -0.6% next session
04/12/05… S&P500 -1.2% next session
12/09/04… S&P500 +0.1% next session
02/20/02… S&P500 -2.1% next session
01/02/02… S&P500 +1.1% next session (*)
10/25/01… S&P500 -0.2% next session
05/16/01… S&P500 +0.2% next session
05/04/01… S&P500 -0.9% next session
01/03/01… S&P500 -1.1% next session
05/24/00… S&P500 -1.7% next session
02/15/00… S&P500 -1.5% next session
04/12/99… S&P500 -0.6% next session
10/28/97… S&P500 -0.3% next session
In 21 out of 29 cases, or 72% of the time, SPY closed lower the following session, significantly above the 47% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame. Only three cases led to an S&P up more than 0.5% the next day, while fifteen led to an S&P down more than 0.5%. To qualify, SPY needs to close above R2 at 127.26 today.