Friday’s Jobs Report: No Downside Surprise Likely

The S&P500 briefly ran up to a new intraday high this morning at 1278.17 before selling off. Historically, when the S&P touches a 40-day high on the day prior to the Employment Report release, the market has a strong track record of NOT posting a significant selloff on the day of the release. Over the last 30 occurrences stretching back to 1995, not a single instance coincided with a 1% down day for the S&P500, and only 2 out of 30 involved more than a 0.5% drop.

SPX Touches 40-day High Prior to Jobs Report
01/06/11… S&P500 ??? next session
11/04/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
10/07/10… S&P500 +0.6% next session
01/07/10… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/03/09… S&P500 +0.6% next session
08/06/09… S&P500 +1.3% next session
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
05/31/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
05/03/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next session
12/07/06… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/05/06… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/03/06… S&P500 -0.1% next session
01/05/06… S&P500 +0.9% next session
03/03/05… S&P500 +1.0% next session
12/02/04… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/04/04… S&P500 +0.4% next session
01/08/04… S&P500 -0.9%  next session (*)
06/05/03… S&P500 -0.2% next session
08/31/00… S&P500 +0.2% next session
07/01/99… S&P500 +0.8% next session
11/04/98… S&P500 +1.3% next session
07/01/98… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/02/98… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/05/98… S&P500 +0.9% next session
12/04/97… S&P500 +1.1% next session
07/31/97… S&P500 -0.8%  next session (*)
07/02/97… S&P500 +1.4% next session
02/01/96… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/95… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/01/95… S&P500 -0.2% next session

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

 Print This Post