December Starts with a Bang

Positive seasonal tendencies in December have been well documented. Here’s an interesting twist based on today’s session. With the S&P up over 2% on the first trading day of December, I scanned the last 110 years of index data to uncover instances of a 1%+ up move on the first session of December. The scan utilized S&P500 data from 1950 to present and Dow Industrials data from 1900-1950. There were a total of 18 occurrences, all of which are listed below along with the stock market’s performance from the close on the first day of December to the close on the first day of January…

S&P500 Gains 1%+ on First Session of December
12/01/10… S&P ??? on first day of January
12/01/09… S&P +2.2% on first day of January
12/01/05… S&P +0.3% on first day of January
12/01/04… S&P +0.9% on first day of January
12/01/03… S&P +3.6% on first day of January
12/01/98… S&P +4.5% on first day of January
12/01/97… S&P +0.0% on first day of January
12/02/91… S&P +9.4% on first day of January
12/01/89… S&P +2.6% on first day of January
12/01/78… S&P +0.5% on first day of January
12/01/71… S&P +6.5% on first day of January
12/03/56… S&P +0.5% on first day of January
12/01/48… Dow +1.0% on first day of January
12/01/32… Dow +2.2% on first day of January
12/01/30… Dow -8.4% on first day of January (*)
12/02/29… Dow +1.0% on first day of January
12/01/22… Dow +3.2% on first day of January
12/01/21… Dow +1.0% on first day of January
12/02/07… Dow -0.9% on first day of January

Consistent with the generally positive seasonals in December, the stock market typically traded sideways-to-up heading into the first session of January, with only one instance leading to a loss of more than 1%.

Bolstering the positive seasonal tendencies, we’re currently running at 93% up volume on the NYSE. Should this statistic hold at 90% or better, it would have positive implications looking out two weeks given that we also saw a 90% up volume day (on a rounded basis) on November 24th. Two 90%+ up volume days within a five-day time span has only been seen 16 times since 1980, 13 of which led to a higher S&P two weeks later…

Second 90%+ Up Volume Day Within a Week of First 90% Up Volume Day
09/24/10… S&P500 +1.4% two weeks later
09/01/10… S&P500 +4.1% two weeks later
07/13/10… S&P500 +1.7% two weeks later
06/15/10… S&P500 -6.6% two weeks later
06/02/10… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.0% two weeks later
07/15/09… S&P500 +4.6% two weeks later
04/09/09… S&P500 +1.1% two weeks later
03/23/09… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
03/12/09… S&P500 +10.9% two weeks later
11/26/08… S&P500 -1.6% two weeks later
03/18/08… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later
11/28/07… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
08/31/07… S&P500 +0.2% two weeks later
08/20/82… S&P500 +8.6% two weeks later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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