BKX SOX Tug-of-War

Semiconductors and financials headed in opposite directions Monday, creating a tug-of-war effect that left the major averages little changed on the day. The table below summarizes each of the 50 instances since 2000 in which the SOX closed up 1% or more on the same day that the BKX closed down 1%+. There’s been a tendency for higher prices the next session, although the edge is not huge. Probably the most noteworthy fact is that the divergence never preceded a significant market selloff. The S&P didn’t close down more than 1.1% the next day in each of the last 30 occurrences, and only closed down more than 1.1% two times out of the last 50 occurrences. By comparison, the S&P rallied more than 1.1% a total of twenty times, suggesting if we’re going to see an outsized move on Tuesday, it will be to the upside…

SOX +1%, BKX -1%
11/22/10… S&P500 ??? next session
10/25/10… S&P500 +0.0% next session
09/14/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/03/09… S&P500 +0.6% next session
07/17/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/27/09… S&P500 +1.5% next session
05/19/09… S&P500 -0.5% next session
04/30/09… S&P500 +0.5% next session
04/22/09… S&P500 +1.0% next session
04/08/09… S&P500 +3.8% next session
03/13/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
03/03/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session
12/09/08… S&P500 +1.2% next session
09/24/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
08/07/08… S&P500 +2.4% next session
07/15/08… S&P500 +2.5% next session
06/04/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
05/30/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/21/08… S&P500 -0.9% next session
04/09/08… S&P500 +0.5% next session
02/11/08… S&P500 +0.7% next session
01/18/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
03/06/07… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/14/06… S&P500 +2.1% next session
11/30/05… S&P500 +1.2% next session
10/19/04… S&P500 +0.0% next session
09/20/04… S&P500 +0.6% next session
05/07/04… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/02/04… S&P500 +0.8% next session
08/01/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
04/16/03… S&P500 +1.6% next session
09/24/02… S&P500 +2.5% next session
09/10/02… S&P500 -0.0% next session
08/16/02… S&P500 +2.4% next session
07/12/02… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/03/02… S&P500 +3.7% next session
06/26/02… S&P500 +1.8% next session
04/15/02… S&P500 +2.3% next session
12/14/01… S&P500 +1.0% next session
10/08/01… S&P500 -0.5% next session
10/04/01… S&P500 +0.2% next session
08/27/01… S&P500 -1.5% next session (*)
06/25/01… S&P500 -0.2% next session
05/08/01… S&P500 -0.5% next session
04/30/01… S&P500 +1.4% next session
03/22/01… S&P500 +2.0% next session
03/21/01… S&P500 -0.4% next session
01/18/01… S&P500 -0.4% next session
12/04/00… S&P500 +3.9% next session
11/15/00… S&P500 -1.3% next session (*)
11/13/00… S&P500 +2.4% next session
10/26/00… S&P500 +1.1% next session

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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