SPX Holding Near Unchanged as Most Stocks Trade Lower
By
Rennie on Friday, October 15th, 2010 at 3:12 pm
The S&P500 is holding near unchanged levels Friday despite poor breadth (advance/decline ratio currently .56 – see intraday stats). Historically, a higher S&P on poor breadth is typically followed by lower prices the next session. The last 30 instances of a higher SPX close and an NYSE advance/decline ratio less than .75 are listed below…
SPX Closes Higher, Adv/Dec Ratio <.75
07/12/10… S&P500 +1.5% next session
05/25/10… S&P500 -0.6% next session
05/17/10… S&P500 -1.4% next session
03/15/10… S&P500 +0.8% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
07/01/08… S&P500 -1.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/09/08… S&P500 -0.2% next session
12/13/07… S&P500 -1.4% next session
08/16/07… S&P500 +2.5% next session
08/10/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
08/01/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
07/25/07… S&P500 -2.3% next session
05/24/06… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/15/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/10/06… S&P500 -0.8% next session
09/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next session
03/23/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
03/10/05… S&P500 -0.8% next session
02/18/05… S&P500 -1.5% next session
07/22/04… S&P500 -1.0% next session
04/23/04… S&P500 -0.5% next session
01/29/04… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/25/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
In 22 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, the S&P turned around and closed lower the following session, significantly above the 45% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same period of time. Along with today’s very weak NYSE TICK action (TICKscore -33 lowest since August) and 5% selloff in GE, there’s reason to be defensive heading into Monday’s session (especially on a higher SPX close today).
SPX Holding Near Unchanged as Most Stocks Trade Lower
By Rennie on Friday, October 15th, 2010 at 3:12 pmThe S&P500 is holding near unchanged levels Friday despite poor breadth (advance/decline ratio currently .56 – see intraday stats). Historically, a higher S&P on poor breadth is typically followed by lower prices the next session. The last 30 instances of a higher SPX close and an NYSE advance/decline ratio less than .75 are listed below…
SPX Closes Higher, Adv/Dec Ratio <.75
07/12/10… S&P500 +1.5% next session
05/25/10… S&P500 -0.6% next session
05/17/10… S&P500 -1.4% next session
03/15/10… S&P500 +0.8% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
07/01/08… S&P500 -1.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/09/08… S&P500 -0.2% next session
12/13/07… S&P500 -1.4% next session
08/16/07… S&P500 +2.5% next session
08/10/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
08/01/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
07/25/07… S&P500 -2.3% next session
05/24/06… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/15/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/10/06… S&P500 -0.8% next session
09/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next session
03/23/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
03/10/05… S&P500 -0.8% next session
02/18/05… S&P500 -1.5% next session
07/22/04… S&P500 -1.0% next session
04/23/04… S&P500 -0.5% next session
01/29/04… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/25/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
In 22 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, the S&P turned around and closed lower the following session, significantly above the 45% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same period of time. Along with today’s very weak NYSE TICK action (TICKscore -33 lowest since August) and 5% selloff in GE, there’s reason to be defensive heading into Monday’s session (especially on a higher SPX close today).