Semiconductors Underperfoming Nasdaq by a Wide Margin
By
Rennie on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Semiconductors underperforming the Nasdaq by a wide margin Wednesday, historically a short-term negative sign. In the table below I’ve noted each of the last thirty instances in which the NDX closed up 1% or more and the SOX settled with a gain of less than 0.5% (or closed lower)…
NDX Gains 1%+, SOX Gains Less Than 0.5% or Settles Lower
07/20/10… Lower NDX close one session later
09/16/09… Lower NDX close one session later
08/07/09… Lower NDX close one session later
04/21/09… No lower close within three sessions
02/03/09… Lower NDX close one session later
01/08/09… Lower NDX close one session later
07/01/08… Lower NDX close one session later
01/31/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/09/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
12/21/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
11/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
10/26/07… No lower close within three sessions
10/23/07… Lower NDX close one session later
08/02/07… Lower NDX close one session later
05/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
03/14/07… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/11/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
09/20/06… Lower NDX close one session later
05/25/06… Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/19/05… Lower NDX close one session later
11/22/04… Lower NDX close one session later
04/22/04… Lower NDX close two sessions later
09/02/03… Lower NDX close one session later
06/11/03… Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/21/03… Lower NDX close one session later
12/06/02… Lower NDX close one session later
10/14/02… No lower close within three sessions
09/09/02… Lower NDX close three sessions later
08/29/02… Lower NDX close one session later
08/22/02… Lower NDX close one session later
Note that in 27 out of 30 cases, or 90% of the time, the NDX posted a subsequently lower close (below the setup day) within the next three sessions (and usually within the next two). That’s significantly above the 66% at-any-time odds for a lower NDX close within three days. Should the NDX finish today’s session up 1% or more, this suggests we’ll see some of today’s gains given back over the short-term.
Semiconductors Underperfoming Nasdaq by a Wide Margin
By Rennie on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 1:55 pmSemiconductors underperforming the Nasdaq by a wide margin Wednesday, historically a short-term negative sign. In the table below I’ve noted each of the last thirty instances in which the NDX closed up 1% or more and the SOX settled with a gain of less than 0.5% (or closed lower)…
NDX Gains 1%+, SOX Gains Less Than 0.5% or Settles Lower
07/20/10… Lower NDX close one session later
09/16/09… Lower NDX close one session later
08/07/09… Lower NDX close one session later
04/21/09… No lower close within three sessions
02/03/09… Lower NDX close one session later
01/08/09… Lower NDX close one session later
07/01/08… Lower NDX close one session later
01/31/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/09/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
12/21/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
11/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
10/26/07… No lower close within three sessions
10/23/07… Lower NDX close one session later
08/02/07… Lower NDX close one session later
05/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
03/14/07… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/11/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
09/20/06… Lower NDX close one session later
05/25/06… Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/19/05… Lower NDX close one session later
11/22/04… Lower NDX close one session later
04/22/04… Lower NDX close two sessions later
09/02/03… Lower NDX close one session later
06/11/03… Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/21/03… Lower NDX close one session later
12/06/02… Lower NDX close one session later
10/14/02… No lower close within three sessions
09/09/02… Lower NDX close three sessions later
08/29/02… Lower NDX close one session later
08/22/02… Lower NDX close one session later
Note that in 27 out of 30 cases, or 90% of the time, the NDX posted a subsequently lower close (below the setup day) within the next three sessions (and usually within the next two). That’s significantly above the 66% at-any-time odds for a lower NDX close within three days. Should the NDX finish today’s session up 1% or more, this suggests we’ll see some of today’s gains given back over the short-term.