NYSE TICK Posts Highest Intraday Low Since mid-April
By
Rennie on Monday, September 20th, 2010 at 9:13 pm
NYSE TICK reflected a complete absence of sellers Monday, with the intraday low barely exceeding -800, the highest intraday low in months. An absence of large negative TICK readings is an obvious positive for the day, but it also indicates buying power is spent for the very short-term. The result is usually a sideways trading range the following session, with below-average gains when they do occur. This tendency is magnified when the S&P closes at a three-week high on the same day, as was the case Monday. The last 30 times in which the NYSE TICK posted its highest low in 15 days and the SPX closed at a 15-day high are listed in the table below. While the chance for a higher or lower close the next day has been about 50/50, note that the S&P gained more than 0.5% the next day only once…
SPX 15-day High, NYSE TICK Highest Low in 15 Days
09/20/10… S&P500 ??? next day
07/26/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/15/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/05/10… S&P500 -0.0% next day
02/18/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
12/22/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
11/09/09… S&P500 -0.0% next day
10/19/09… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/22/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
09/16/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day (*)
05/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% next day
04/09/09… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/05/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/15/08… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/30/07… S&P500 +0.0% next day
05/02/07… S&P500 +0.4% next day
04/05/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
01/24/07… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/16/06… S&P500 -0.4% next day
10/12/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/04/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/03/06… S&P500 -0.7% next day
06/29/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/05/06… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
The market usually works its way higher in the hours leading up to the FOMC announcement (see this column from mid-March) . Given today’s unusually high intraday low for the NYSE TICK, pre-FOMC strength could represent an intraday selling opportunity heading into the close.
TICKscore closed at +29, its best close in three weeks but note that the cumulative version is still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows at this point. Upside volume on the NYSE accounted for over 90% of total volume, the fifteenth 90%+ up volume day this year. That’s a lot. It would be far more bullish to see the number of 90% up volume days settle down rather than remain so unusually high. In the forty years prior to 2007, there were never more than five 90% up volume days in any one-year period (see chart).
Also interesting to note that today’s 90% up volume coincided with the S&P500 closing at a fresh three-month high. That’s only occurred twice in the last decade (8/21/09, 5/4/09), with both cases leading to short-term weakness looking out 1-2 weeks.
NYSE TICK Posts Highest Intraday Low Since mid-April
By Rennie on Monday, September 20th, 2010 at 9:13 pmNYSE TICK reflected a complete absence of sellers Monday, with the intraday low barely exceeding -800, the highest intraday low in months. An absence of large negative TICK readings is an obvious positive for the day, but it also indicates buying power is spent for the very short-term. The result is usually a sideways trading range the following session, with below-average gains when they do occur. This tendency is magnified when the S&P closes at a three-week high on the same day, as was the case Monday. The last 30 times in which the NYSE TICK posted its highest low in 15 days and the SPX closed at a 15-day high are listed in the table below. While the chance for a higher or lower close the next day has been about 50/50, note that the S&P gained more than 0.5% the next day only once…
SPX 15-day High, NYSE TICK Highest Low in 15 Days
09/20/10… S&P500 ??? next day
07/26/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/15/10… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/05/10… S&P500 -0.0% next day
02/18/10… S&P500 +0.2% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
12/22/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
11/09/09… S&P500 -0.0% next day
10/19/09… S&P500 -0.6% next day
09/22/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
09/16/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day (*)
05/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% next day
04/09/09… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/05/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/15/08… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/30/07… S&P500 +0.0% next day
05/02/07… S&P500 +0.4% next day
04/05/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
01/24/07… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/16/06… S&P500 -0.4% next day
10/12/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/04/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/03/06… S&P500 -0.7% next day
06/29/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/05/06… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
The market usually works its way higher in the hours leading up to the FOMC announcement (see this column from mid-March) . Given today’s unusually high intraday low for the NYSE TICK, pre-FOMC strength could represent an intraday selling opportunity heading into the close.
TICKscore closed at +29, its best close in three weeks but note that the cumulative version is still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows at this point. Upside volume on the NYSE accounted for over 90% of total volume, the fifteenth 90%+ up volume day this year. That’s a lot. It would be far more bullish to see the number of 90% up volume days settle down rather than remain so unusually high. In the forty years prior to 2007, there were never more than five 90% up volume days in any one-year period (see chart).
Also interesting to note that today’s 90% up volume coincided with the S&P500 closing at a fresh three-month high. That’s only occurred twice in the last decade (8/21/09, 5/4/09), with both cases leading to short-term weakness looking out 1-2 weeks.