Gap Up Openings on Triple Witching Expiration
By
Rennie on Friday, September 17th, 2010 at 2:21 am
With S&P futures currently trading up 6 overnight, we could be in store for a gap up open. A quick review of previous upside gaps on triple witching revealed a consistent tendency for the market to trade lower from the gap up open through the following week. Each of the 25 instances in which S&P futures opened above the previous day’s high on a triple witching Friday is listed below. Performance figures are based from the opening on triple witching until the following Friday’s close.
S&P Futures Open > Previous Day’s High on Triple Witching
03/19/10… S&P futures -0.1% at end of next week
06/19/09… S&P futures -0.8% at end of next week
09/19/08… S&P futures -5.0% at end of next week
12/21/07… S&P futures -0.7% at end of next week
06/15/07… S&P futures -1.9% at end of next week
12/15/06… S&P futures -1.5% at end of next week
09/15/06… S&P futures -0.7% at end of next week
09/16/05… S&P futures -1.6% at end of next week
06/17/05… S&P futures -2.1% at end of next week
09/17/04… S&P futures -1.4% at end of next week
12/19/03… S&P futures +1.7% at end of next week
03/21/03… S&P futures -2.5% at end of next week
12/17/99… S&P futures +2.1% at end of next week
09/17/99… S&P futures -4.1% at end of next week
03/19/99… S&P futures -3.0% at end of next week
03/20/98… S&P futures +0.1% at end of next week
12/20/96… S&P futures +0.2% at end of next week
09/20/96… S&P futures +0.0% at end of next week
12/18/92… S&P futures +0.3% at end of next week
12/20/91… S&P futures +7.5% at end of next week
06/21/91… S&P futures -2.0% at end of next week
12/21/90… S&P futures -0.9% at end of next week
03/16/90… S&P futures -0.8% at end of next week
09/18/87… S&P futures +1.5% at end of next week
03/16/84… S&P futures -1.7% at end of next week
Out of 25 occurrences since inception of S&P futures, 17 (68%) led to a lower S&P one week later, a significant edge over the 45% random chance. The S&P gained more than 0.5% over the next week only four times, while it fell more than 0.5% sixteen times.
Gap Up Openings on Triple Witching Expiration
By Rennie on Friday, September 17th, 2010 at 2:21 amWith S&P futures currently trading up 6 overnight, we could be in store for a gap up open. A quick review of previous upside gaps on triple witching revealed a consistent tendency for the market to trade lower from the gap up open through the following week. Each of the 25 instances in which S&P futures opened above the previous day’s high on a triple witching Friday is listed below. Performance figures are based from the opening on triple witching until the following Friday’s close.
S&P Futures Open > Previous Day’s High on Triple Witching
03/19/10… S&P futures -0.1% at end of next week
06/19/09… S&P futures -0.8% at end of next week
09/19/08… S&P futures -5.0% at end of next week
12/21/07… S&P futures -0.7% at end of next week
06/15/07… S&P futures -1.9% at end of next week
12/15/06… S&P futures -1.5% at end of next week
09/15/06… S&P futures -0.7% at end of next week
09/16/05… S&P futures -1.6% at end of next week
06/17/05… S&P futures -2.1% at end of next week
09/17/04… S&P futures -1.4% at end of next week
12/19/03… S&P futures +1.7% at end of next week
03/21/03… S&P futures -2.5% at end of next week
12/17/99… S&P futures +2.1% at end of next week
09/17/99… S&P futures -4.1% at end of next week
03/19/99… S&P futures -3.0% at end of next week
03/20/98… S&P futures +0.1% at end of next week
12/20/96… S&P futures +0.2% at end of next week
09/20/96… S&P futures +0.0% at end of next week
12/18/92… S&P futures +0.3% at end of next week
12/20/91… S&P futures +7.5% at end of next week
06/21/91… S&P futures -2.0% at end of next week
12/21/90… S&P futures -0.9% at end of next week
03/16/90… S&P futures -0.8% at end of next week
09/18/87… S&P futures +1.5% at end of next week
03/16/84… S&P futures -1.7% at end of next week
Out of 25 occurrences since inception of S&P futures, 17 (68%) led to a lower S&P one week later, a significant edge over the 45% random chance. The S&P gained more than 0.5% over the next week only four times, while it fell more than 0.5% sixteen times.