Follow-through Day after 20:1 Up/Down Volume Ratio
By
Rennie on Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 at 9:54 pm
We usually discuss up & down volume as a percentage of total volume, but another way of looking at the data is to take a ratio of up volume divided by down volume. On Wednesday, this ratio was over 20:1 (see chart). While we’ve actually seen a few 20+ readings in just the last few months, historically it’s a very rare occurrence. When the S&P manages to continue moving higher immediately after a 20:1 up:down volume day, meaning it posts a higher high, there’s usually further upside in store over the short-term. This pattern has occurred 16 times since 1960, all of which are listed below along with the performance of the S&P over the next two sessions…
SPX Posts Higher High After 20:1 Up/Down Volume Day
09/02/10… S&P500 ??? two sessions later
07/08/10… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
06/16/10… S&P500 +0.3% two sessions later
06/11/10… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
06/03/10… S&P500 -4.8% two sessions later (*)
05/11/10… S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
07/16/09… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
03/24/09… S&P500 +3.3% two sessions later
03/11/09… S&P500 +4.9% two sessions later
11/29/07… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
08/30/07… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
05/14/90… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
01/05/87… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/23/82… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/18/82… S&P500 +4.1% two sessions later
06/29/62… S&P500 +3.2% two sessions later
Note that out of 16 occurrences since 1960, only one led to any significant weakness looking out two trading days, suggesting the S&P will be trading at a similar level or higher at next Tuesday’s close (markets are closed Monday for Labor Day).
On the volatility front, the VIX/VXV Ratio is moving back towards extreme territory in the .85 area, and VXO closed more than 10% below its 10-day average on Thursday. Both are approaching ‘market sell’ territory, suggesting further strength heading into next Tuesday’s close mark the next short-term top.
Follow-through Day after 20:1 Up/Down Volume Ratio
By Rennie on Thursday, September 2nd, 2010 at 9:54 pmWe usually discuss up & down volume as a percentage of total volume, but another way of looking at the data is to take a ratio of up volume divided by down volume. On Wednesday, this ratio was over 20:1 (see chart). While we’ve actually seen a few 20+ readings in just the last few months, historically it’s a very rare occurrence. When the S&P manages to continue moving higher immediately after a 20:1 up:down volume day, meaning it posts a higher high, there’s usually further upside in store over the short-term. This pattern has occurred 16 times since 1960, all of which are listed below along with the performance of the S&P over the next two sessions…
SPX Posts Higher High After 20:1 Up/Down Volume Day
09/02/10… S&P500 ??? two sessions later
07/08/10… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
06/16/10… S&P500 +0.3% two sessions later
06/11/10… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
06/03/10… S&P500 -4.8% two sessions later (*)
05/11/10… S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
07/16/09… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
03/24/09… S&P500 +3.3% two sessions later
03/11/09… S&P500 +4.9% two sessions later
11/29/07… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
08/30/07… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
05/14/90… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
01/05/87… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/23/82… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/18/82… S&P500 +4.1% two sessions later
06/29/62… S&P500 +3.2% two sessions later
Note that out of 16 occurrences since 1960, only one led to any significant weakness looking out two trading days, suggesting the S&P will be trading at a similar level or higher at next Tuesday’s close (markets are closed Monday for Labor Day).
On the volatility front, the VIX/VXV Ratio is moving back towards extreme territory in the .85 area, and VXO closed more than 10% below its 10-day average on Thursday. Both are approaching ‘market sell’ territory, suggesting further strength heading into next Tuesday’s close mark the next short-term top.