Cumulative TICKscore Hits New 30-day Low
By
Rennie on Wednesday, September 15th, 2010 at 2:39 am
The S&P500 closed slightly lower Tuesday but remains up 2.7% since the post-Labor Day selloff. You may recall from this September 8th post that over the last fifty years, the S&P has never ended the month up more than 2.6% following a post-Labor Day selloff. From a seasonal perspective, there’s very little upside potential heading into month-end but plenty of room on the downside. TICKscore closed at -8 Tuesday, sending cumulative TICKscore to a new low for the month, pretty remarkable given the S&P’s 7% rise in the last two weeks. The complete absence of institutional support indicates the rally is on shaky ground and could crumble at any time. I could find only one period similar to the present – mid-June of this year when the S&P rallied 6% in two weeks while cumulative TICKscore hit new lows. Over the following two weeks the S&P gave back all of those gains and more. With the 10-day average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio holding below .60 and the elevated Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio, it’s a highly speculative atmosphere.
Cumulative TICKscore Hits New 30-day Low
By Rennie on Wednesday, September 15th, 2010 at 2:39 amThe S&P500 closed slightly lower Tuesday but remains up 2.7% since the post-Labor Day selloff. You may recall from this September 8th post that over the last fifty years, the S&P has never ended the month up more than 2.6% following a post-Labor Day selloff. From a seasonal perspective, there’s very little upside potential heading into month-end but plenty of room on the downside. TICKscore closed at -8 Tuesday, sending cumulative TICKscore to a new low for the month, pretty remarkable given the S&P’s 7% rise in the last two weeks. The complete absence of institutional support indicates the rally is on shaky ground and could crumble at any time. I could find only one period similar to the present – mid-June of this year when the S&P rallied 6% in two weeks while cumulative TICKscore hit new lows. Over the following two weeks the S&P gave back all of those gains and more. With the 10-day average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio holding below .60 and the elevated Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio, it’s a highly speculative atmosphere.