TLT Selloff and Short-term Implications for the S&P500
By
Rennie on Friday, August 27th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
S&P500 enjoying a solid rally to close out the week, boosted by a steep selloff in bonds. TLT is set to close down in excess of 2%, a price pattern that normally coincides with higher stock prices on the same day but lower stocks the following day. This tends to indicate stock averages get a bit ahead of themselves on a short-term basis when bonds stage an outsized selloff. Every occurrence of a 2%+ down day for TLT is listed in the table below, along with the S&P500′s performance the following session…
TLT Closes Down Over 2%
08/27/10… S&P500 ??? next day
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.2% next day
05/10/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
10/09/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/04/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/21/09… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
04/03/09… S&P500 -0.8% next day
02/13/09… S&P500 -4.6% next day
02/03/09… S&P500 -0.8% next day
01/29/09… S&P500 -2.3% next day
01/28/09… S&P500 -3.3% next day
01/21/09… S&P500 -1.5% next day
01/05/09… S&P500 +0.8% next day
01/02/09… S&P500 -0.5% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next day
09/30/08… S&P500 -0.5% next day
09/19/08… S&P500 -3.8% next day
04/01/08… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/07/08… S&P500 -0.4% next day
01/24/08… S&P500 -1.6% next day
04/02/04… S&P500 +0.8% next day
10/03/03… S&P500 +0.4% next day
07/21/03… S&P500 +1.0% next day
07/15/03… S&P500 -0.6% next day
01/02/03… S&P500 -0.1% next day
11/27/02… S&P500 -0.3% next day
11/14/02… S&P500 +0.6% next day
10/15/02… S&P500 -2.4% next day
Out of 32 occurrences since inception of TLT in 2002, 22 (69%) led to a lower S&P close the following session, significantly above the 46% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame.
TLT Selloff and Short-term Implications for the S&P500
By Rennie on Friday, August 27th, 2010 at 2:53 pmS&P500 enjoying a solid rally to close out the week, boosted by a steep selloff in bonds. TLT is set to close down in excess of 2%, a price pattern that normally coincides with higher stock prices on the same day but lower stocks the following day. This tends to indicate stock averages get a bit ahead of themselves on a short-term basis when bonds stage an outsized selloff. Every occurrence of a 2%+ down day for TLT is listed in the table below, along with the S&P500′s performance the following session…
TLT Closes Down Over 2%
08/27/10… S&P500 ??? next day
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.2% next day
05/10/10… S&P500 -0.3% next day
10/09/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/04/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/21/09… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
04/03/09… S&P500 -0.8% next day
02/13/09… S&P500 -4.6% next day
02/03/09… S&P500 -0.8% next day
01/29/09… S&P500 -2.3% next day
01/28/09… S&P500 -3.3% next day
01/21/09… S&P500 -1.5% next day
01/05/09… S&P500 +0.8% next day
01/02/09… S&P500 -0.5% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next day
09/30/08… S&P500 -0.5% next day
09/19/08… S&P500 -3.8% next day
04/01/08… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/07/08… S&P500 -0.4% next day
01/24/08… S&P500 -1.6% next day
04/02/04… S&P500 +0.8% next day
10/03/03… S&P500 +0.4% next day
07/21/03… S&P500 +1.0% next day
07/15/03… S&P500 -0.6% next day
01/02/03… S&P500 -0.1% next day
11/27/02… S&P500 -0.3% next day
11/14/02… S&P500 +0.6% next day
10/15/02… S&P500 -2.4% next day
Out of 32 occurrences since inception of TLT in 2002, 22 (69%) led to a lower S&P close the following session, significantly above the 46% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame.