Steadily Improving Breadth Points to Consolidation on Wednesday
By
Rennie on Tuesday, August 17th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
The NYSE advance/decline ratio is running close to 5:1 positive Tuesday, which marks the fourth consecutive session of improving breadth. The advance/decline ratio closed at .17 last Wednesday, .76 on Thursday, .85 Friday, 1.65 Monday and is currently at 4.75 Tuesday. Historically, when breadth improves four consecutive sessions, buying power is usually exhausted for the very short-term, and the S&P tends to close flat-to-down the next day. The last thirty times that the NYSE advance/decline ratio (initially) improved from the previous session on four consecutive days are listed in the table below…
NYSE Breadth Improves Four Consecutive Sessions
12/14/09… S&P500 -0.6% next session
06/19/09… S&P500 -3.1% next session
01/28/09… S&P500 -3.3% next session
07/19/06… S&P500 -0.9% next session
06/09/06… S&P500 -1.3% next session
09/26/05… S&P500 +0.0% next session
08/11/05… S&P500 -0.6% next session
04/07/05… S&P500 -0.8% next session
11/12/04… S&P500 -0.0% next session
05/25/04… S&P500 +0.2% next session
08/28/03… S&P500 +0.5% next session
05/31/02… S&P500 -2.5% next session
06/28/01… S&P500 -0.1% next session
10/31/00… S&P500 -0.6% next session
06/28/00… S&P500 -0.9% next session
02/03/00… S&P500 -0.0% next session
06/16/99… S&P500 +0.7% next session (*)
05/20/99… S&P500 -0.6% next session
11/02/98… S&P500 -0.1% next session
12/01/97… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/30/97… S&P500 +0.2% next session
03/04/97… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
08/02/96… S&P500 -0.3% next session
10/13/95… S&P500 -0.3% next session
09/05/95… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/23/95… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/14/94… S&P500 +0.1% next session
10/28/94… S&P500 -0.3% next session
10/11/94… S&P500 -0.1% next session
07/14/94… S&P500 +0.2% next session
Note that in 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 settled lower the following session, significantly greater than the 47% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame. In only two cases out of thirty did the S&P gain more than 0.5% the next day, while it fell more than 0.5% eleven times.
Steadily Improving Breadth Points to Consolidation on Wednesday
By Rennie on Tuesday, August 17th, 2010 at 1:59 pmThe NYSE advance/decline ratio is running close to 5:1 positive Tuesday, which marks the fourth consecutive session of improving breadth. The advance/decline ratio closed at .17 last Wednesday, .76 on Thursday, .85 Friday, 1.65 Monday and is currently at 4.75 Tuesday. Historically, when breadth improves four consecutive sessions, buying power is usually exhausted for the very short-term, and the S&P tends to close flat-to-down the next day. The last thirty times that the NYSE advance/decline ratio (initially) improved from the previous session on four consecutive days are listed in the table below…
NYSE Breadth Improves Four Consecutive Sessions
12/14/09… S&P500 -0.6% next session
06/19/09… S&P500 -3.1% next session
01/28/09… S&P500 -3.3% next session
07/19/06… S&P500 -0.9% next session
06/09/06… S&P500 -1.3% next session
09/26/05… S&P500 +0.0% next session
08/11/05… S&P500 -0.6% next session
04/07/05… S&P500 -0.8% next session
11/12/04… S&P500 -0.0% next session
05/25/04… S&P500 +0.2% next session
08/28/03… S&P500 +0.5% next session
05/31/02… S&P500 -2.5% next session
06/28/01… S&P500 -0.1% next session
10/31/00… S&P500 -0.6% next session
06/28/00… S&P500 -0.9% next session
02/03/00… S&P500 -0.0% next session
06/16/99… S&P500 +0.7% next session (*)
05/20/99… S&P500 -0.6% next session
11/02/98… S&P500 -0.1% next session
12/01/97… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/30/97… S&P500 +0.2% next session
03/04/97… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
08/02/96… S&P500 -0.3% next session
10/13/95… S&P500 -0.3% next session
09/05/95… S&P500 +0.2% next session
02/23/95… S&P500 +0.3% next session
12/14/94… S&P500 +0.1% next session
10/28/94… S&P500 -0.3% next session
10/11/94… S&P500 -0.1% next session
07/14/94… S&P500 +0.2% next session
Note that in 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 settled lower the following session, significantly greater than the 47% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame. In only two cases out of thirty did the S&P gain more than 0.5% the next day, while it fell more than 0.5% eleven times.