Down Opens on Fed Day
By
Rennie on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 1:49 am
S&P futures currently off 5 in overnight trade. Historically, the S&P is roughly twice as likely to open higher on the day of an FOMC announcement. When it’s opened lower, it’s usually represented a good short-term buy targeting a close above that day’s open either the same day or the next. The last 30 occurrences are listed below…
S&P futures Open Lower on Day of FOMC Announcement
01/27/10… S&P futures close +0.7% from open same day
08/12/09… S&P futures close +1.2% from open same day
03/18/09… S&P futures close +2.9% from open same day
10/29/08… S&P futures close +2.7% from open next day
09/16/08… S&P futures close +4.1% from open same day
01/30/08… S&P futures close +1.6% from open next day
08/07/07… S&P futures close +1.3% from open same day
06/28/07… S&P futures close -0.2% from open next day
05/09/07… S&P futures close +0.4% from open same day
01/31/07… S&P futures close +0.8% from open same day
12/12/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open next day
10/25/06… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
05/10/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open same day
03/28/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open next day
01/31/06… S&P futures close +0.0% from open next day
12/13/05… S&P futures close +0.7% from open same day
11/01/05… S&P futures close +0.9% from open next day
05/03/05… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
12/14/04… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
01/29/03… S&P futures close +1.3% from open same day
09/24/02… S&P futures close +2.4% from open same day
08/13/02… S&P futures close +2.3% from open same day
06/26/02… S&P futures close +2.4% from open same day
11/06/01… S&P futures close +1.8% from open same day
10/02/01… S&P futures close +1.4% from open same day
08/21/01… S&P futures close -0.7% from open next day
01/31/01… S&P futures close +0.2% from open same day
12/19/00… S&P futures close -4.5% from open next day
11/15/00… S&P futures close +0.4% from open same day
08/22/00… S&P futures close +0.1% from open same day
In 24 out of the last 25 occurrences since 2001, and in 27 out of the last 30 (90%), S&P futures settled above the open either the same day or the next, a significant edge over the 66% random chance.
Down Opens on Fed Day
By Rennie on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 1:49 amS&P futures currently off 5 in overnight trade. Historically, the S&P is roughly twice as likely to open higher on the day of an FOMC announcement. When it’s opened lower, it’s usually represented a good short-term buy targeting a close above that day’s open either the same day or the next. The last 30 occurrences are listed below…
S&P futures Open Lower on Day of FOMC Announcement
01/27/10… S&P futures close +0.7% from open same day
08/12/09… S&P futures close +1.2% from open same day
03/18/09… S&P futures close +2.9% from open same day
10/29/08… S&P futures close +2.7% from open next day
09/16/08… S&P futures close +4.1% from open same day
01/30/08… S&P futures close +1.6% from open next day
08/07/07… S&P futures close +1.3% from open same day
06/28/07… S&P futures close -0.2% from open next day
05/09/07… S&P futures close +0.4% from open same day
01/31/07… S&P futures close +0.8% from open same day
12/12/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open next day
10/25/06… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
05/10/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open same day
03/28/06… S&P futures close +0.1% from open next day
01/31/06… S&P futures close +0.0% from open next day
12/13/05… S&P futures close +0.7% from open same day
11/01/05… S&P futures close +0.9% from open next day
05/03/05… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
12/14/04… S&P futures close +0.5% from open same day
01/29/03… S&P futures close +1.3% from open same day
09/24/02… S&P futures close +2.4% from open same day
08/13/02… S&P futures close +2.3% from open same day
06/26/02… S&P futures close +2.4% from open same day
11/06/01… S&P futures close +1.8% from open same day
10/02/01… S&P futures close +1.4% from open same day
08/21/01… S&P futures close -0.7% from open next day
01/31/01… S&P futures close +0.2% from open same day
12/19/00… S&P futures close -4.5% from open next day
11/15/00… S&P futures close +0.4% from open same day
08/22/00… S&P futures close +0.1% from open same day
In 24 out of the last 25 occurrences since 2001, and in 27 out of the last 30 (90%), S&P futures settled above the open either the same day or the next, a significant edge over the 66% random chance.