Weak NYSE TICK
By
Rennie on Tuesday, July 6th, 2010 at 2:22 pm
NYSE TICK action has been consistently negative since midday, with Cumulative TICK trending straight down since shortly after Noon ET and TICKscore already at -40. TICK recently hit an intraday low of -1,450, its lowest low in two weeks, which is noteworthy with the S&P hovering around unchanged levels. Historically, when the S&P closes higher on a day when the TICK records a 5-day low, there’s a tendency for the market to trade lower the following session. The last 30 occurrences are below…
NYSE TICK Hits 5-day Low, S&P Closes Higher
06/03/10… S&P500 -3.4% next session
05/17/10… S&P500 -1.4% next session
04/19/10… S&P500 +0.8% next session
03/17/10… S&P500 -0.0% next session
03/03/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
12/04/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next session
04/08/09… S&P500 +3.8% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/26/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
11/07/08… S&P500 -1.3% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
10/16/08… S&P500 -0.6% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/23/08… S&P500 -2.3% next session
06/25/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
05/19/08… S&P500 -0.9% next session
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next session
03/03/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
02/12/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session
12/18/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
12/12/07… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/20/07… S&P500 -1.6% next session
11/02/07… S&P500 -0.5% next session
10/17/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
In 21 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 70% of the time the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly above the 46% random odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. This setup will go into effect on a higher SPX close today.
Weak NYSE TICK
By Rennie on Tuesday, July 6th, 2010 at 2:22 pmNYSE TICK action has been consistently negative since midday, with Cumulative TICK trending straight down since shortly after Noon ET and TICKscore already at -40. TICK recently hit an intraday low of -1,450, its lowest low in two weeks, which is noteworthy with the S&P hovering around unchanged levels. Historically, when the S&P closes higher on a day when the TICK records a 5-day low, there’s a tendency for the market to trade lower the following session. The last 30 occurrences are below…
NYSE TICK Hits 5-day Low, S&P Closes Higher
06/03/10… S&P500 -3.4% next session
05/17/10… S&P500 -1.4% next session
04/19/10… S&P500 +0.8% next session
03/17/10… S&P500 -0.0% next session
03/03/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
12/04/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next session
04/08/09… S&P500 +3.8% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/26/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
11/07/08… S&P500 -1.3% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
10/16/08… S&P500 -0.6% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/23/08… S&P500 -2.3% next session
06/25/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
05/19/08… S&P500 -0.9% next session
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next session
03/03/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
02/12/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session
12/18/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
12/12/07… S&P500 +0.1% next session
11/20/07… S&P500 -1.6% next session
11/02/07… S&P500 -0.5% next session
10/17/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
In 21 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 70% of the time the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly above the 46% random odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. This setup will go into effect on a higher SPX close today.