Oversold and Unable to Bounce

Interesting to note that today is setting up to be the first time in history that the OEX 2-day RSI will close under 2.0 for seven consecutive sessions. That clearly illustrates the complete lack of buying interest despite the seemingly ‘low’ prices. Adding to the negative outlook is today’s weak S&P performance coinciding with the monthly employment report. With the SPX currently off 0.8%, we’ll want to take note if it closes down in excess of 1%. Historically, 1%+ down days on Jobs Report Fridays usually lead to further downside early next week. Each of the last 30 occurrences is listed in the table below. Note that in 21 cases, or 70% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close two sessions later, significantly greater than 47% random chance for a lower S&P two days later in the same time frame…

S&P500 -1%+ on Jobs Report Friday
06/04/10… S&P500 -0.3% two sessions later
05/07/10… S&P500 +4.0% two sessions later
07/02/09… S&P500 -1.7% two sessions later
01/09/09… S&P500 -2.1% two sessions later
10/03/08… S&P500 -9.4% two sessions later
06/06/08… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
01/04/08… S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
09/07/07… S&P500 +1.2% two sessions later
08/03/07… S&P500 +3.1% two sessions later
04/07/06… S&P500 -0.7% two sessions later
08/06/04… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
05/07/04… S&P500 -0.3% two sessions later
08/01/03… S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
02/07/03… S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
10/04/02… S&P500 -0.3% two sessions later
08/02/02… S&P500 -0.5% two sessions later
05/03/02… S&P500 -2.2% two sessions later
09/07/01… S&P500 -4.3% two sessions later
07/06/01… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
04/06/01… S&P500 +3.5% two sessions later
03/09/01… S&P500 -2.9% two sessions later
02/02/01… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
01/05/01… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
10/06/00… S&P500 -1.6% two sessions later
08/06/99… S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
01/09/98… S&P500 +2.6% two sessions later
11/07/97… S&P500 -0.4% two sessions later
07/05/96… S&P500 -0.4% two sessions later
04/08/96… S&P500 -1.7% two sessions later
03/08/96… S&P500 +0.6% two sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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