SPY Holding Below S3
By
Rennie on Tuesday, June 29th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
Market suffering a punishing loss as the recent inability of stocks to bounce was evidently a better tell than any research. One interesting point to today’s session is that SPY opened below and has held below S3 throughout the session. Assuming SPY remains below 106.10 into the close, it would represent only the 14th time since 1990 that the intraday high for SPY was below S3 (this is the pivot point based on Brett Steenbarger’s volatility-adjusted pivot calculations). Interestingly, on nearly all previous occurrences, SPY opened higher the following session…
SPY High < S3
08/17/09… SPY opens +0.2% next day
02/05/08… SPY opens +0.3% next day
01/04/08… SPY opens +0.4% next day
02/27/07… SPY opens +0.6% next day
12/17/04… SPY opens +0.3% next day
09/17/01… SPY opens +0.0% next day
03/12/01… SPY opens +1.1% next day
02/16/01… SPY opens +0.5% next day
12/20/00… SPY opens -0.2% next day
01/04/00… SPY opens +0.1% next day
04/27/98… SPY opens +1.0% next day
07/05/96… SPY opens +0.1% next day
04/08/96… SPY opens +0.4% next day
Unfortunately, the positive momentum often peters out shortly after the open. Of the 13 occurrences above, SPY closed lower the same day 7 times and closed lower within the next two days 9 times.
SPY Holding Below S3
By Rennie on Tuesday, June 29th, 2010 at 1:15 pmMarket suffering a punishing loss as the recent inability of stocks to bounce was evidently a better tell than any research. One interesting point to today’s session is that SPY opened below and has held below S3 throughout the session. Assuming SPY remains below 106.10 into the close, it would represent only the 14th time since 1990 that the intraday high for SPY was below S3 (this is the pivot point based on Brett Steenbarger’s volatility-adjusted pivot calculations). Interestingly, on nearly all previous occurrences, SPY opened higher the following session…
SPY High < S3
08/17/09… SPY opens +0.2% next day
02/05/08… SPY opens +0.3% next day
01/04/08… SPY opens +0.4% next day
02/27/07… SPY opens +0.6% next day
12/17/04… SPY opens +0.3% next day
09/17/01… SPY opens +0.0% next day
03/12/01… SPY opens +1.1% next day
02/16/01… SPY opens +0.5% next day
12/20/00… SPY opens -0.2% next day
01/04/00… SPY opens +0.1% next day
04/27/98… SPY opens +1.0% next day
07/05/96… SPY opens +0.1% next day
04/08/96… SPY opens +0.4% next day
Unfortunately, the positive momentum often peters out shortly after the open. Of the 13 occurrences above, SPY closed lower the same day 7 times and closed lower within the next two days 9 times.