Selling Pressure Persists, Short-term Oscillator Oversold
By
Rennie on Thursday, June 24th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
Market so far failing to lift Thursday as institutions remain better sellers (TICKscore -15). It’s been tough to fight that trend recently, but I’d note that an SPX close at 1080.05 or lower would send the SPX 2-day RSI under 2.0, historically a good indication that the market’s short-term oversold and likely to close higher within the next couple of session. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P’s 2-day RSI closed under 2.0, along with the performance of the S&P500 by the time the RSI rose back over 2.0 and the number of days elapsed…
S&P500 2-day RSI Closes Below 2.0
05/20/10… S&P500 +1.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/02/09… S&P500 +0.9% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/20/09… S&P500 +0.4% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% when 2day RSI >2 (three sessions)
01/22/08… S&P500 +2.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/08… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/27/07… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/13/06… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/05… S&P500 -0.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
08/06/04… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
03/11/04… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/22/03… S&P500 +1.0% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/19/02… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/03/02… S&P500 +1.8% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
07/22/02… S&P500 +3.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
04/26/02… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/20/01… S&P500 +2.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/07/01… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/15/01… S&P500 -0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
02/09/01… S&P500 +1.2% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
11/10/00… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/11/00… S&P500 +0.8% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/18/00… S&P500 +1.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
04/14/00… S&P500 +3.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
10/15/99… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
08/04/99… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
05/25/99… S&P500 +1.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
04/19/99… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
08/31/98… S&P500 +3.8% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
07/23/98… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
In 27 out of the last 30 cases, or 90% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close one or two sessions later. Also note that the worst loss by the time the signal was closed out was a mere 0.1%, suggesting limited downside potential over the near-term.
Selling Pressure Persists, Short-term Oscillator Oversold
By Rennie on Thursday, June 24th, 2010 at 12:55 pmMarket so far failing to lift Thursday as institutions remain better sellers (TICKscore -15). It’s been tough to fight that trend recently, but I’d note that an SPX close at 1080.05 or lower would send the SPX 2-day RSI under 2.0, historically a good indication that the market’s short-term oversold and likely to close higher within the next couple of session. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P’s 2-day RSI closed under 2.0, along with the performance of the S&P500 by the time the RSI rose back over 2.0 and the number of days elapsed…
S&P500 2-day RSI Closes Below 2.0
05/20/10… S&P500 +1.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/02/09… S&P500 +0.9% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/20/09… S&P500 +0.4% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% when 2day RSI >2 (three sessions)
01/22/08… S&P500 +2.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/08… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
02/27/07… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/13/06… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/04/05… S&P500 -0.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
08/06/04… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
03/11/04… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
01/22/03… S&P500 +1.0% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/19/02… S&P500 +0.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
09/03/02… S&P500 +1.8% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
07/22/02… S&P500 +3.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
04/26/02… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/20/01… S&P500 +2.0% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/07/01… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
06/15/01… S&P500 -0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
02/09/01… S&P500 +1.2% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
11/10/00… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
10/11/00… S&P500 +0.8% when 2day RSI >2 (two sessions)
09/18/00… S&P500 +1.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
04/14/00… S&P500 +3.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
10/15/99… S&P500 +0.5% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
08/04/99… S&P500 +0.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
05/25/99… S&P500 +1.6% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
04/19/99… S&P500 +1.3% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
08/31/98… S&P500 +3.8% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
07/23/98… S&P500 +0.1% when 2day RSI >2 (one session)
In 27 out of the last 30 cases, or 90% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close one or two sessions later. Also note that the worst loss by the time the signal was closed out was a mere 0.1%, suggesting limited downside potential over the near-term.