NYSE TICK Posts its Highest Low in 20+ Days

NYSE TICK only traded down to -919 at its lowest point of the day Tuesday, the highest intraday low in over a month. While an absence of large negative TICK readings is an obvious positive for the day, it also suggests buying power is spent for the short-term. The result is usually a sideways trading range the following session, with below-average gains when they do occur. This tendency is magnified when the S&P closes at a three-week high on the same day, as was the case Tuesday. The last 30 times in which the NYSE TICK posted its highest low in 15 days and the SPX closed at a 15-day high are listed in the table below. While the chance for a higher or lower close the next day has been about 50/50, note that the S&P gained more than 0.5% the next day only once…

SPX 15-day High, NYSE TICK Highest Low in 15 Days
10/19/09… S&P500 ???  next day
09/22/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
09/16/09… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/21/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day (*)
05/18/09… S&P500 -2.2% next day
04/09/09… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/05/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/15/08… S&P500 +0.2% next day
05/01/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
05/30/07… S&P500 +0.0% next day
05/02/07… S&P500 +0.4% next day
04/05/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
01/24/07… S&P500 -1.1% next day
10/16/06… S&P500 -0.4% next day
10/12/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/04/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/03/06… S&P500 -0.7% next day
06/29/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
05/05/06… S&P500 -0.1% next day
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/16/06… S&P500 -0.2% next day
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.9% next day
11/02/05… S&P500 +0.4% next day
09/09/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day
08/02/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
05/27/05… S&P500 -0.6% next day
05/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/04/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day
12/30/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day

The spread between new 20-day highs and lows expanded to over 1,000 issues Tuesday, and our version of Standard & Poors Oscillator closed firmly in positive territory at 4.53 after registering its first positive reading in over a month at Monday’s close. Both indicators show marked improvement from rally attempts seen in May. Cumulative TICK 20-day moving average is trending higher, a positive sign. Cumulative TICKscore is having a harder time lifting as institutional investors remain tepid buyers.

Volatility indexes closed at a one-month low, with VXO triggering a short-term sell signal after it closed more than 15% below its 10-day moving average. That indicates we’ll see an SPX close below 1115 within the next few days.

New 52-week highs expanded with the market’s last hour rally to match Monday’s level on the NYSE. That nullifies the potential three-day sell signal outlined in an earlier intraday update. Testing that signal with an equal number of new highs rather than a drop in new highs produced a track record just short of statistical significance.

From an intermediate-term perspective, it’s hard not to notice we posted yet another 90%+ up volume session, the fifth 90% up volume session in the last month and the second in the last week. As I’ve mentioned recently, two 90% up volume days within five sessions never really occurred prior to 2007, but since then we’ve seen eleven instances. All led to a sideways-to-up market over the next two weeks…

90% Up Volume Day Within Five Days of 90% Up Volume Day
06/15/10… S&P500 ??? two weeks later
06/02/10… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later (open – ends Wed)
05/27/10… S&P500 -1.0% two weeks later
07/15/09… S&P500 +4.6% two weeks later
04/09/09… S&P500 +1.1% two weeks later
03/23/09… S&P500 +1.5% two weeks later
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.5% two weeks later
03/12/09… S&P500 +10.9% two weeks later
11/26/08… S&P500 -1.6% two weeks later
03/18/08… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later
11/28/07… S&P500 +1.2% two weeks later
08/31/07… S&P500 +0.2% two weeks later
08/20/82… S&P500 +8.6% two weeks later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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