New 52-week Highs Lagging Despite 2%+ Up Day

New 20-day highs running well ahead of Monday’s levels as you’d expect on a 2%+ up day, but noteworthy that new 52-week highs are lagging behind Monday’s levels on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. It’s not a huge deficit on the NYSE (56 vs. 64 yesterday) but if new 52-week highs fail to expand today it will trigger a three-day sell signal. When the S&P gains over 0.75% and makes higher highs and higher lows, you don’t typically see a drop in the number of new 52-week highs. When this does occur, it’s a warning sign that the rally is on shaky ground. The last thirty times this pattern has occurred are noted in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance over the next three trading days. Note that in 22 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, the S&P500 was trading at a lower level three sessions later, significantly greater than the 44% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P three sessions later in the same time frame…

S&P +0.75% & Rally Day, New 52-week Highs on NYSE Drop
09/09/09… S&P500 +1.6% three sessions later
08/12/09… S&P500 -2.6% three sessions later
06/29/09… S&P500 -3.3% three sessions later
05/08/09… S&P500 -4.9% three sessions later
05/06/09… S&P500 -1.1% three sessions later
03/04/09… S&P500 -5.1% three sessions later
02/03/09… S&P500 +3.6% three sessions later
01/28/09… S&P500 -5.6% three sessions later
01/02/09… S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
11/28/08… S&P500 -2.9% three sessions later
11/24/08… S&P500 +5.2% three sessions later
11/04/08… S&P500 -7.4% three sessions later
10/31/08… S&P500 -1.7% three sessions later
10/13/08… S&P500 -5.7% three sessions later
07/16/08… S&P500 +1.2% three sessions later
07/08/08… S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
05/15/08… S&P500 -0.7% three sessions later
05/12/08… S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
03/18/08… S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
02/13/08… S&P500 -1.4% three sessions later
01/24/08… S&P500 +0.8% three sessions later
01/10/08… S&P500 -2.8% three sessions later
11/23/07… S&P500 +2.0% three sessions later
07/28/06… S&P500 -0.0% three sessions later
07/03/06… S&P500 -1.2% three sessions later
02/08/06… S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
09/02/04… S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
04/05/04… S&P500 -1.0% three sessions later
05/06/03… S&P500 -0.1% three sessions later
04/23/03… S&P500 -0.5% three sessions later

Also note that volatility indexes VIX and VXO are trading more than 15% below their 10-day moving averages. A VXO close below 25.83 will trigger the 1-3 day sell setup recently outlined in this June 2nd column.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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