Nasdaq100 Vs. Nasdaq Composite

Monday is shaping up to be the second consecutive session in which the Nasdaq100 outperforms the Nasdaq Composite on a down day. When the NDX closes down 0.5%+ two consecutive sessions and outperforms the Composite on both sessions, the NDX usually posts a higher close within the next 1-2 days. The last 30 occurrences are listed below…

NDX -0.5%, Outperforms Nasdaq Composite Two Consecutive Days
06/01/10… Higher NDX close one session later
05/20/10… Higher NDX close one session later
05/19/10… No higher NDX close next 1-2 days
05/06/10… Higher NDX close two sessions later
09/24/09… Higher NDX close two sessions later
08/06/09… Higher NDX close one session later
06/16/09… Higher NDX close one session later
03/30/09… Higher NDX close one session later
03/02/09… Higher NDX close one session later
01/30/09… Higher NDX close one session later
01/12/09… Higher NDX close one session later
11/20/08… Higher NDX close one session later
11/12/08… Higher NDX close one session later
11/11/08… Higher NDX close two sessions later
10/27/08… Higher NDX close one session later
10/07/08… Higher NDX close one session later
10/06/08… No higher NDX close next 1-2 days
08/19/08… Higher NDX close one session later
06/24/08… Higher NDX close one session later
06/18/08… Higher NDX close one session later
03/17/08… Higher NDX close one session later
06/07/07… Higher NDX close one session later
09/22/06… Higher NDX close one session later
06/19/06… Higher NDX close two sessions later
10/05/05… No higher NDX close next 1-2 days
01/05/05… Higher NDX close two sessions later
05/10/04… Higher NDX close one session later
05/07/04… Higher NDX close two sessions later
04/29/04… No higher NDX close next 1-2 days
09/26/03… Higher NDX close one session later

In 26 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 87% of the time, the NDX closed at a subsequently higher level 1-2 days later, significantly above the 65% random chance for an NDX close above today’s settlement within the next two days. That said, don’t forget to keep an eye on the Dow’s close today, as a 2%+ down day would trigger the ‘crash alert’ pattern discussed Sunday.

Also seeing an intermediate-term bearish signal set to trigger based on the CBOE equity put/call ratio 10-day moving average. More on this in tonight’s commentary.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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