Modest Gain for S&P500 on Negative NYSE TICK Action

Stocks struggling to move higher given the lack of institutional support. TICKscore currently at -44, with the cumulative version set to break below its May low. Cumulative TICK at -50,000. Breadth remains negative, with the advance/decline ratio currently at .76. Note that a closing ratio under .75 with a higher SPX close would trigger a sell for Wednesday’s session (see table at end of column). Another short-term negative indication is the sharp expansion in new 20-day lows, currently near 2,400 vs. 1,831 yesterday. Historically, when new 20-day lows initially exceed 2,000, there’s a bit more downside in store either immediately or after a short-term bounce. Below is every instance over the last six years in which new 20-day lows exceeded 2,000 for the first time in at least three sessions…

New 20-day Lows Top 2,000 First Time in Three Days
06/08/10… ???
05/20/10… Lower S&P close four sessions later
05/04/10… Lower S&P close one session later
02/04/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/27/10… Lower S&P close one session later
01/22/10… Lower S&P close four sessions later
10/28/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/08/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/17/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/15/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/13/08… Lower S&P close one session later
10/24/08… Lower S&P close one session later
09/29/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/05/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/20/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/10/08… Lower S&P close one session later
03/17/08… No lower close within next four days
03/03/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/16/08… Lower S&P close one  session later
01/04/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/19/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/22/07… No lower close within next four days
08/10/07… Lower S&P close one session later
07/24/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/27/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/08/06… Lower S&P close one session later
05/15/06… Lower S&P close one session later
10/12/05… Lower S&P close one session later
10/06/05… Lower S&P close two sessions later
04/15/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/23/05… Lower S&P close one session later
08/06/04… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/22/04… Lower S&P close one session later
05/07/04… Lower S&P close one session later
04/29/04… Lower S&P close one session later

In 32 out of 34 cases, or 94% of the time, the S&P500 posted a lower close (below the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions, significantly above the 72% random chance in the same time frame.

SPX Closes Higher, Adv/Dec Ratio <.75
05/25/10… S&P500 -0.6% next session
05/17/10… S&P500 -1.4% next session
03/15/10… S&P500 +0.8% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
07/01/08… S&P500 -1.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/09/08… S&P500 -0.2% next session
12/13/07… S&P500 -1.4% next session
08/16/07… S&P500 +2.5% next session
08/10/07… S&P500 -0.1% next session
08/01/07… S&P500 +0.4% next session
07/25/07… S&P500 -2.3% next session
05/24/06… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/15/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/10/06… S&P500 -0.8% next session
09/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next session
03/23/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
03/10/05… S&P500 -0.8% next session
02/18/05… S&P500 -1.5% next session
07/22/04… S&P500 -1.0% next session
04/23/04… S&P500 -0.5% next session
01/29/04… S&P500 -0.3% next session
08/25/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
08/04/03… S&P500 -1.8% next session
03/12/03… S&P500 +3.5% next session
07/11/02… S&P500 -0.6% next session

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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