Nasdaq Outperforms on a Low-Volume, Narrow Range Session

NYSE TICK action remained net positive Monday, with TICKscore closing at +24 and Cumulative TICK +28,775 as buying power carried over from Friday’s session. Nevertheless, it wasn’t enough to prevent a late-day slide that left the S&P down 1.3% and just above closing levels from last Thursday. While it looks like we’ll soon see a close below last Thursday’s settlement (S&P futures are currently off an additional 1.5% in overnight trading), today’s relative strength in tech stocks tells us we should be on watch for a short-term bottom soon thereafter. While the S&P500 fell over 1% Monday, the Nasdaq100 closed down less than 0.5%. When the NDX manages to hold its own in the face of a solid down day for the S&P, it suggests limited selling pressure and/or a rotational environment. Typically, the market is trading higher three sessions later. Listed below is every instance since 1990 in which the NDX settled down less than 0.5% on a day when the S&P fell over 1%. Note that in 29 out of 36 cases, or 81% of the time, the S&P was trading at a higher level three sessions later, significantly above the 55% random chance for a higher S&P three days later in the same time frame…

S&P500 Drops 1%+, Nasdaq Down Less than 0.5%
05/24/10… S&P500 ??? three days later
10/26/09… S&P500 -0.1% three days later
06/03/09… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
05/15/09… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/11/09… S&P500 -1.8% three days later
04/27/09… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/19/09… S&P500 +2.8% three days later
02/20/09… S&P500 -0.7% three days later
10/29/08… S&P500 +3.9% three days later
10/10/08… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% three days later
08/12/08… S&P500 +0.7% three days later
07/31/08… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
07/15/08… S&P500 +3.8% three days later
05/23/08… S&P500 +1.6% three days later
06/13/06… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/12/05… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/09/05… S&P500 -0.0% three days later
04/16/03… S&P500 +3.6% three days later
01/22/03… S&P500 -3.5% three days later
10/09/02… S&P500 +8.3% three days later
09/24/02… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
04/29/02… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/06/00… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
02/16/00… S&P500 -2.6% three days later
05/27/99… S&P500 +1.1% three days later
01/14/99… S&P500 +3.7% three days later
07/09/97… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/13/97… S&P500 +0.0% three days later
04/10/96… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
02/20/96… S&P500 +2.9% three days later
01/10/96… S&P500 +0.2% three days later
06/24/94… S&P500 +1.1% three days later
04/01/91… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
01/09/91… S&P500 +0.3% three days later
01/02/91… S&P500 -3.4% three days later
07/05/90… S&P500 +0.2% three days later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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