Late-Day NYSE TICK Action Triggers Bullish Signal for Monday
By
Rennie on Friday, May 21st, 2010 at 4:47 pm
Friday’s pre-closing TICK came in at a high +1091, the first +1000 reading in nearly three years. The pre-closing TICK is the value of the NYSE TICK right before the closing bell, at 3:59:59pm ET. I’ve found this pre-closing figure a better indicator than the actual closing TICK, which can vary quite a bit from the pre-closing level. Historically, a pre-closing figure above +1000 reflects unusually heavy buying pressure taking place right at the closing bell. It wasn’t until after the 9/11 terrorist attacks that we saw the first +1000 pre-closing TICK reading. From that point up until mid-2007 this pattern occurred fairly regularly, with 34 occurrences altogether, all of which are listed below along with the S&P500’s performance the following session. Note the consistently positive next-day returns. In only four cases out of 34 was the S&P down more than 0.5% at the next day’s close, and 76% of the time the S&P closed higher the next day (significantly above the 54% random chance for a higher close one day later)…
Pre-Closing NYSE TICK Over +1000
05/21/10 TICK +1091… S&P ??? next day
07/02/07 TICK +1280… S&P +0.4% next day
06/01/07 TICK +1177… S&P +0.2% next day
05/30/07 TICK +1148… S&P +0.0% next day
04/20/07 TICK +1117… S&P -0.2% next day
04/02/07 TICK +1142… S&P +0.9% next day
03/30/07 TICK +1115… S&P +0.3% next day
03/26/07 TICK +1112… S&P -0.6% next day (*)
03/21/07 TICK +1095… S&P -0.0% next day
03/20/07 TICK +1117… S&P +1.7% next day
03/19/07 TICK +1154… S&P +0.6% next day
03/14/07 TICK +1262… S&P +0.4% next day
03/09/07 TICK +1039… S&P +0.3% next day
03/08/07 TICK +1081… S&P +0.1% next day
01/03/07 TICK +1175… S&P +0.1% next day
12/29/06 TICK +1138… S&P -0.1% next day
06/01/06 TICK +1018… S&P +0.2% next day
12/09/05 TICK +1094… S&P +0.1% next day
08/31/04 TICK +1045… S&P +0.2% next day
08/27/04 TICK +1025… S&P -0.8% next day (*)
08/25/04 TICK +1047… S&P +0.0% next day
06/15/04 TICK +1129… S&P +0.1% next day
06/07/04 TICK +1068… S&P +0.1% next day
05/26/04 TICK +1041… S&P +0.6% next day
05/25/04 TICK +1020… S&P +0.2% next day
06/10/03 TICK +1135… S&P +1.3% next day
06/03/03 TICK +1141… S&P +1.5% next day
05/09/03 TICK +1076… S&P +1.3% next day
01/02/03 TICK +1017… S&P -0.1% next day
10/01/02 TICK +1001… S&P -2.4% next day (*)
07/26/02 TICK +1031… S&P +5.4% next day
07/05/02 TICK +1099… S&P -1.2% next day (*)
03/01/02 TICK +1031… S&P +2.0% next day
02/22/02 TICK +1090… S&P +1.8% next day
09/27/01 TICK +1000… S&P +2.2% next day
Also interesting to note that this is the first bullish pre-closing TICK since mid-2007, perhaps a sign of renewed bullish sentiment following the market’s swift correction. With the BKX/SPX signal mentioned earlier not triggered due to the late-day relative strength in the SPX, it looks like odds have shifted in favor of further upside at the beginning of next week.
Late-Day NYSE TICK Action Triggers Bullish Signal for Monday
By Rennie on Friday, May 21st, 2010 at 4:47 pmFriday’s pre-closing TICK came in at a high +1091, the first +1000 reading in nearly three years. The pre-closing TICK is the value of the NYSE TICK right before the closing bell, at 3:59:59pm ET. I’ve found this pre-closing figure a better indicator than the actual closing TICK, which can vary quite a bit from the pre-closing level. Historically, a pre-closing figure above +1000 reflects unusually heavy buying pressure taking place right at the closing bell. It wasn’t until after the 9/11 terrorist attacks that we saw the first +1000 pre-closing TICK reading. From that point up until mid-2007 this pattern occurred fairly regularly, with 34 occurrences altogether, all of which are listed below along with the S&P500’s performance the following session. Note the consistently positive next-day returns. In only four cases out of 34 was the S&P down more than 0.5% at the next day’s close, and 76% of the time the S&P closed higher the next day (significantly above the 54% random chance for a higher close one day later)…
Pre-Closing NYSE TICK Over +1000
05/21/10 TICK +1091… S&P ??? next day
07/02/07 TICK +1280… S&P +0.4% next day
06/01/07 TICK +1177… S&P +0.2% next day
05/30/07 TICK +1148… S&P +0.0% next day
04/20/07 TICK +1117… S&P -0.2% next day
04/02/07 TICK +1142… S&P +0.9% next day
03/30/07 TICK +1115… S&P +0.3% next day
03/26/07 TICK +1112… S&P -0.6% next day (*)
03/21/07 TICK +1095… S&P -0.0% next day
03/20/07 TICK +1117… S&P +1.7% next day
03/19/07 TICK +1154… S&P +0.6% next day
03/14/07 TICK +1262… S&P +0.4% next day
03/09/07 TICK +1039… S&P +0.3% next day
03/08/07 TICK +1081… S&P +0.1% next day
01/03/07 TICK +1175… S&P +0.1% next day
12/29/06 TICK +1138… S&P -0.1% next day
06/01/06 TICK +1018… S&P +0.2% next day
12/09/05 TICK +1094… S&P +0.1% next day
08/31/04 TICK +1045… S&P +0.2% next day
08/27/04 TICK +1025… S&P -0.8% next day (*)
08/25/04 TICK +1047… S&P +0.0% next day
06/15/04 TICK +1129… S&P +0.1% next day
06/07/04 TICK +1068… S&P +0.1% next day
05/26/04 TICK +1041… S&P +0.6% next day
05/25/04 TICK +1020… S&P +0.2% next day
06/10/03 TICK +1135… S&P +1.3% next day
06/03/03 TICK +1141… S&P +1.5% next day
05/09/03 TICK +1076… S&P +1.3% next day
01/02/03 TICK +1017… S&P -0.1% next day
10/01/02 TICK +1001… S&P -2.4% next day (*)
07/26/02 TICK +1031… S&P +5.4% next day
07/05/02 TICK +1099… S&P -1.2% next day (*)
03/01/02 TICK +1031… S&P +2.0% next day
02/22/02 TICK +1090… S&P +1.8% next day
09/27/01 TICK +1000… S&P +2.2% next day
Also interesting to note that this is the first bullish pre-closing TICK since mid-2007, perhaps a sign of renewed bullish sentiment following the market’s swift correction. With the BKX/SPX signal mentioned earlier not triggered due to the late-day relative strength in the SPX, it looks like odds have shifted in favor of further upside at the beginning of next week.