Another Day of Lopsided Negative Breadth, but with Higher Lows
By
Rennie on Tuesday, May 18th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
Traders sold into Tuesday’s gap up opening and remained better sellers throughout the session, sending the TICKscore indicator to its second-lowest close of the year (-77). S&P futures posted the widest range of the last seven sessions (WR7) but still managed to hold Monday’s lows, as did the Nasdaq100. The fact that the NDX posted a higher high and low despite nearly 3:1 negative breadth is a positive sign looking out to Thursday’s close. The last thirty times that NASDAQ breadth closed at least 3:2 negative and the NDX posted a higher high and low are listed below, along with the performance of the Nasdaq100 over the next two sessions…
NDX Higher High & Higher Low Despite 3:2 Neg Breadth
05/18/10… NDX ??? two sessions later
02/08/10… NDX +0.9% two sessions later
12/10/09… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
11/10/09… NDX -0.0% two sessions later
11/04/09… NDX +3.0% two sessions later
10/23/09… NDX -1.8% two sessions later
10/21/09… NDX +0.0% two sessions later
10/20/09… NDX +0.4% two sessions later
08/28/09… NDX -2.9% two sessions later
05/27/09… NDX +2.4% two sessions later
05/15/09… NDX +3.2% two sessions later
04/27/09… NDX +0.9% two sessions later
02/25/09… NDX -3.8% two sessions later
02/04/09… NDX +5.1% two sessions later
01/22/09… NDX +1.4% two sessions later
12/09/08… NDX -2.6% two sessions later
12/04/08… NDX +8.6% two sessions later
10/14/08… NDX -3.8% two sessions later
08/07/08… NDX +3.3% two sessions later
06/17/08… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
03/19/08… NDX +5.8% two sessions later
02/28/08… NDX -3.4% two sessions later
02/21/08… NDX +1.1% two sessions later
10/30/07… NDX -0.5% two sessions later
09/24/07… NDX +1.5% two sessions later
07/16/07… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
05/17/07… NDX +1.4% two sessions later
05/14/07… NDX +0.2% two sessions later
11/09/06… NDX +1.6% two sessions later
10/20/06… NDX +0.3% two sessions later
08/09/06… NDX +0.1% two sessions later
In 22 out of the last 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the NDX closed higher two sessions later, significantly above the 52% at-any-time odds for a higher NDX two days later in the same time frame. Note from this pattern’s equity curve that it hardly ever occurred prior to 1998 but since that time it’s been consistently bullish.
Another Day of Lopsided Negative Breadth, but with Higher Lows
By Rennie on Tuesday, May 18th, 2010 at 10:01 pmTraders sold into Tuesday’s gap up opening and remained better sellers throughout the session, sending the TICKscore indicator to its second-lowest close of the year (-77). S&P futures posted the widest range of the last seven sessions (WR7) but still managed to hold Monday’s lows, as did the Nasdaq100. The fact that the NDX posted a higher high and low despite nearly 3:1 negative breadth is a positive sign looking out to Thursday’s close. The last thirty times that NASDAQ breadth closed at least 3:2 negative and the NDX posted a higher high and low are listed below, along with the performance of the Nasdaq100 over the next two sessions…
NDX Higher High & Higher Low Despite 3:2 Neg Breadth
05/18/10… NDX ??? two sessions later
02/08/10… NDX +0.9% two sessions later
12/10/09… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
11/10/09… NDX -0.0% two sessions later
11/04/09… NDX +3.0% two sessions later
10/23/09… NDX -1.8% two sessions later
10/21/09… NDX +0.0% two sessions later
10/20/09… NDX +0.4% two sessions later
08/28/09… NDX -2.9% two sessions later
05/27/09… NDX +2.4% two sessions later
05/15/09… NDX +3.2% two sessions later
04/27/09… NDX +0.9% two sessions later
02/25/09… NDX -3.8% two sessions later
02/04/09… NDX +5.1% two sessions later
01/22/09… NDX +1.4% two sessions later
12/09/08… NDX -2.6% two sessions later
12/04/08… NDX +8.6% two sessions later
10/14/08… NDX -3.8% two sessions later
08/07/08… NDX +3.3% two sessions later
06/17/08… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
03/19/08… NDX +5.8% two sessions later
02/28/08… NDX -3.4% two sessions later
02/21/08… NDX +1.1% two sessions later
10/30/07… NDX -0.5% two sessions later
09/24/07… NDX +1.5% two sessions later
07/16/07… NDX +0.5% two sessions later
05/17/07… NDX +1.4% two sessions later
05/14/07… NDX +0.2% two sessions later
11/09/06… NDX +1.6% two sessions later
10/20/06… NDX +0.3% two sessions later
08/09/06… NDX +0.1% two sessions later
In 22 out of the last 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the NDX closed higher two sessions later, significantly above the 52% at-any-time odds for a higher NDX two days later in the same time frame. Note from this pattern’s equity curve that it hardly ever occurred prior to 1998 but since that time it’s been consistently bullish.