This S&P Futures Price Pattern is Forecasting a Down Day

S&P futures opened lower Thursday, traded below the previous day’s low, then recovered later in the day to finish with a higher close. Importantly, price was not able to break above the previous day’s high. Looking back at the last 30 instances when S&P futures traded in an identical manner, we find a considerable downside edge for the following session…

S&P futures lower open, high & low + higher close
04/08/10… S&P futures ??? next day
03/22/10… S&P futures +0.7% next day
01/27/10… S&P futures -1.4% next day
12/30/09… S&P futures -1.0% next day
10/22/09… S&P futures -1.3% next day
08/26/09… S&P futures +0.2% next day
08/10/09… S&P futures -1.5% next day
07/06/09… S&P futures -1.8% next day
06/12/09… S&P futures -2.3% next day
04/21/09… S&P futures -1.3% next day
04/15/09… S&P futures +1.5% next day
02/05/09… S&P futures +3.2% next day
01/13/09… S&P futures -3.3% next day
01/08/09… S&P futures -2.3% next day
12/12/08… S&P futures -1.5% next day
11/18/08… S&P futures -6.2% next day
10/23/08… S&P futures -5.4% next day
09/26/08… S&P futures -7.9% next day
09/16/08… S&P futures -4.4% next day
09/05/08… S&P futures +2.1% next day
07/10/08… S&P futures -1.2% next day
07/01/08… S&P futures -1.8% next day
04/21/08… S&P futures -0.5% next day
04/03/08… S&P futures -0.1% next day
03/31/08… S&P futures +3.5% next day
03/13/08… S&P futures -1.7% next day
03/03/08… S&P futures -0.4% next day
02/20/08… S&P futures -0.9% next day
02/15/08… S&P futures +0.3% next day
02/07/08… S&P futures -0.7% next day
01/31/08… S&P futures +1.3% next day

In 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, S&P futures reversed course and closed lower the following session, significantly above the 44% random chance for a lower S&P close one day later in the same time frame.

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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