With TICKscore at -13, SPX Holding Near Unchanged

With about 45 minutes to go in Friday’s session, our TICKscore indicator stands at -13 with the S&P hovering near unchanged. From a bullish point of view, it would be preferable to see the S&P close lower today given the negative TICK action. Should it close higher, odds would tilt in favor of a lower close on Monday. Below are the last thirty instances in which the S&P500 closed higher and our TICKscore indicator settled below zero…

S&P Closes Higher, TICKscore <0
03/03/10… S&P500 +0.4% next session
02/05/10… S&P500 -0.9% next session
01/25/10… S&P500 -0.4% next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/21/09… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/02/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/15/09… S&P500 -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/09/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session (*)
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
02/11/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
01/13/09… S&P500 -3.4% next session
12/10/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next session (*)
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next session  (*)
09/16/08… S&P500 -4.7% next session
09/10/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
09/08/08… S&P500 -3.4% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/25/08… S&P500 -1.9% next session
07/10/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session

Note that in 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. In only five cases did the S&P close up 0.5% or more the next session, while it fell 0.5%+ seventeen times.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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