What Today’s Open Tells Us About Thursday’s Session
By
Rennie on Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 at 10:37 am
Looking beyond the potential for a close below today’s open, I would be cautious about expecting further downside on Thursday. Today represented the second consecutive session that S&P futures opened above the previous day’s high, usually a good indication that buyers will continue to make their presence felt the following session (Thursday in this case). The last thirty occurrences of two consecutive opens above the previous day’s high are listed in the table below. Note that in 24 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher close one day later in the same time frame. In only three cases did the S&P close down 0.5%+ the next day, while it rallied 0.5%+ twelve times…
S&P Futures Open >Previous Session’s High Two Days
03/17/10… S&P500 ??? next day
03/02/10… S&P500 +0.1% next day
02/17/10… S&P500 +0.6% next day
12/29/09… S&P500 +0.0% next day
12/28/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
09/09/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
09/08/09… S&P500 +0.7% next day
08/24/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.4% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day (*)
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
What Today’s Open Tells Us About Thursday’s Session
By Rennie on Wednesday, March 17th, 2010 at 10:37 amLooking beyond the potential for a close below today’s open, I would be cautious about expecting further downside on Thursday. Today represented the second consecutive session that S&P futures opened above the previous day’s high, usually a good indication that buyers will continue to make their presence felt the following session (Thursday in this case). The last thirty occurrences of two consecutive opens above the previous day’s high are listed in the table below. Note that in 24 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher close one day later in the same time frame. In only three cases did the S&P close down 0.5%+ the next day, while it rallied 0.5%+ twelve times…
S&P Futures Open >Previous Session’s High Two Days
03/17/10… S&P500 ??? next day
03/02/10… S&P500 +0.1% next day
02/17/10… S&P500 +0.6% next day
12/29/09… S&P500 +0.0% next day
12/28/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
12/24/09… S&P500 +0.1% next day
09/09/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
09/08/09… S&P500 +0.7% next day
08/24/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.4% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day (*)
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day