Two Signals from Our Version of Standard & Poors’ Oscillator
By
Rennie on Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
Update: NYSE advancers close at 2,200 (preliminary) – short-term Oscillator signal not triggered.
Our version of the Standard & Poors Oscillator is set to close lower for the third day in a row Tuesday as long as breadth doesn’t improve from current levels (NYSE advancers <2,100). Historically, a declining Oscillator in the face of a rising S&P has short-term negative implications. The last thirty instances in which the S&P rallied two days and the Oscillator declined both days are listed in the table below. In 21 cases, or 70% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close two sessions later, significantly above the 47% random chance for a lower SPX two days later in the same time frame. While performance has been a bit erratic recently, I would still tend to favor lower prices short-term given the ‘six higher highs’ setup that was triggered last Friday and which continues to call for a close below Friday’s settlement within the next couple of days..
S&P500 Up Two, S&P Oscillator Down Two
03/03/10… S&P500 +1.8% two sessions later (*)
01/11/10… S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
01/08/10… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
01/07/10… S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
12/01/09… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
09/04/09… S&P500 +1.7% two sessions later (*)
08/27/09… S&P500 -1.0% two sessions later
06/12/09… S&P500 -3.6% two sessions later
04/24/09… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
04/01/09… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later (*)
01/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% two sessions later
09/12/08… S&P500 -3.0% two sessions later
09/11/08… S&P500 -4.5% two sessions later
09/08/08… S&P500 -2.8% two sessions later
07/01/08… S&P500 -1.7% two sessions later
04/07/08… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
12/13/07… S&P500 -2.9% two sessions later
04/18/07… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
02/07/07… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
10/19/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
10/10/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
09/27/06… S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
01/24/06… S&P500 +0.6% two sessions later
11/07/05… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
09/16/05… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
08/03/05… S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
07/14/05… S&P500 -0.4% two sessions later
02/16/05… S&P500 -0.7% two sessions later
02/15/05… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
12/09/04… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
From an intermediate-term perspective, this same S&P Oscillator is set to trigger an intermediate-term bullish signal given that the S&P has remained on firm ground in the week since the 7+ reading recorded last Tuesday. This pattern typically leads to higher prices two weeks later.
Two Signals from Our Version of Standard & Poors’ Oscillator
By Rennie on Tuesday, March 16th, 2010 at 3:42 pmUpdate: NYSE advancers close at 2,200 (preliminary) – short-term Oscillator signal not triggered.
Our version of the Standard & Poors Oscillator is set to close lower for the third day in a row Tuesday as long as breadth doesn’t improve from current levels (NYSE advancers <2,100). Historically, a declining Oscillator in the face of a rising S&P has short-term negative implications. The last thirty instances in which the S&P rallied two days and the Oscillator declined both days are listed in the table below. In 21 cases, or 70% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close two sessions later, significantly above the 47% random chance for a lower SPX two days later in the same time frame. While performance has been a bit erratic recently, I would still tend to favor lower prices short-term given the ‘six higher highs’ setup that was triggered last Friday and which continues to call for a close below Friday’s settlement within the next couple of days..
S&P500 Up Two, S&P Oscillator Down Two
03/03/10… S&P500 +1.8% two sessions later (*)
01/11/10… S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
01/08/10… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
01/07/10… S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
12/01/09… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
09/04/09… S&P500 +1.7% two sessions later (*)
08/27/09… S&P500 -1.0% two sessions later
06/12/09… S&P500 -3.6% two sessions later
04/24/09… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
04/01/09… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later (*)
01/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% two sessions later
09/12/08… S&P500 -3.0% two sessions later
09/11/08… S&P500 -4.5% two sessions later
09/08/08… S&P500 -2.8% two sessions later
07/01/08… S&P500 -1.7% two sessions later
04/07/08… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
12/13/07… S&P500 -2.9% two sessions later
04/18/07… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
02/07/07… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
10/19/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
10/10/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
09/27/06… S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
01/24/06… S&P500 +0.6% two sessions later
11/07/05… S&P500 -0.2% two sessions later
09/16/05… S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
08/03/05… S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
07/14/05… S&P500 -0.4% two sessions later
02/16/05… S&P500 -0.7% two sessions later
02/15/05… S&P500 -0.8% two sessions later
12/09/04… S&P500 +0.8% two sessions later
From an intermediate-term perspective, this same S&P Oscillator is set to trigger an intermediate-term bullish signal given that the S&P has remained on firm ground in the week since the 7+ reading recorded last Tuesday. This pattern typically leads to higher prices two weeks later.