This Higher High Could Spell Trouble

TICKscore in slightly negative territory heading into the final hour of trading. Should the S&P500 close higher and TICKscore remain negative, a sell signal would be triggered for Monday. See this March 4th column for the track record. Additionally, a short-term sell signal is set to trigger at today’s close based on the recent streak of higher highs for S&P futures. Today marks the sixth consecutive session that the front-month contract has posted an intraday high greater than the previous session, an indication that buying power is near a short-term exhaustion point. Over the last 30 separate occurrences of this price pattern stretching back to 1999, S&P futures posted a subsequently lower close (below the setup day’s close) 2-4 trading days later 27 times. That 90% accuracy is significantly greater than the 64% random chance for a lower S&P 2-4 sessions later in the same time frame.

S&P Futures Post Six Consecutive Higher Highs
03/12/10… ???
02/19/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/08/10… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/29/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/11/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
09/11/09… No lower close within next 2-4 sessions
08/25/09… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/27/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/01/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/17/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/19/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/05/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/15/06… Lower S&P close four sessions later
06/17/05… Lower S&P close four sessions later
05/23/05… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/16/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/02/04… No lower close within next 2-4 sessions
04/01/04… No lower close within next 2-4 sessions
01/22/04… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/08/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
12/02/03… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/16/03… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/20/03… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/31/02… Lower S&P close two sessions later
03/08/02… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/14/02… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/07/01… Lower S&P close three sessions later
08/08/00… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/14/00… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/11/99… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/02/99… Lower S&P close two sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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