SPX Staging Late-Day Rebound, Breadth Lagging

From a short-term seasonal perspective, the bullish pre-FOMC announcement time frame goes into effect at today’s close and lasts until 2pm ET Tuesday. The last thirty occurrences are listed below…

S&P500 Performance Pre-FOMC Announcement
03/15/10 4:00pm ET
01/26/10 4:00pm ET 1092.19 – 01/27/10 -5.24 @ 2:00pm ET
12/15/09 4:00pm ET 1107.91 – 12/16/09 +5.42 @ 2:00pm ET
11/03/09 4:00pm ET 1044.80 – 11/04/09 +9.83 @ 2:00pm ET
09/22/09 4:00pm ET 1071.66 – 09/23/09 +2.06 @ 2:00pm ET
08/11/09 4:00pm ET 994.35 – 08/12/09 +13.25 @ 2:00pm ET
06/23/09 4:00pm ET 895.10 – 06/24/09 +11.54 @ 2:00pm ET
04/28/09 4:00pm ET 855.16 – 04/29/09 +20.45 @ 2:00pm ET
03/17/09 4:00pm ET 777.53 – 03/18/09 +0.91 @ 2:00pm ET
01/27/09 4:00pm ET 846.15 – 01/28/09 +25.51 @ 2:00pm ET
12/15/08 4:00pm ET 869.40 – 12/16/08 +13.28 @ 2:00pm ET
10/28/08 4:00pm ET 940.27 – 10/29/08 +7.85 @ 2:00pm ET
09/15/08 4:00pm ET 1197.72 – 09/16/08 -5.86 @ 2:00pm ET
08/04/08 4:00pm ET 1248.69 – 08/05/08 +23.56 @ 2:00pm ET
06/24/08 4:00pm ET 1314.76 – 06/25/08 +10.54 @ 2:00pm ET
04/29/08 4:00pm ET 1391.63 – 04/30/08 +4.57 @ 2:00pm ET
03/17/08 4:00pm ET 1276.77 – 03/18/08 +38.02 @ 2:00pm ET
01/29/08 4:00pm ET 1362.00 – 01/30/08 -4.61 @ 2:00pm ET
12/10/07 4:00pm ET 1516.38 – 12/11/07 +5.33 @ 2:00pm ET
10/30/07 4:00pm ET 1531.27 – 10/31/07 +11.22 @ 2:00pm ET
09/17/07 4:00pm ET 1476.40 – 09/18/07 +10.67 @ 2:00pm ET
08/06/07 4:00pm ET 1466.82 – 08/07/07 +8.04 @ 2:00pm ET
06/27/07 4:00pm ET 1506.80 – 06/28/07 +5.09 @ 2:00pm ET
05/08/07 4:00pm ET 1507.79 – 05/09/07 +0.69 @ 2:00pm ET
03/20/07 4:00pm ET 1410.49 – 03/21/07 +3.56 @ 2:00pm ET
01/30/07 4:00pm ET 1428.82 – 01/31/07 +9.94 @ 2:00pm ET
12/11/06 4:00pm ET 1413.04 – 12/12/06 -2.18 @ 2:00pm ET
10/24/06 4:00pm ET 1377.22 – 10/25/06 +1.68 @ 2:00pm ET
09/19/06 4:00pm ET 1318.50 – 09/20/06 +8.65 @ 2:00pm ET
08/07/06 4:00pm ET 1276.04 – 08/08/06 +0.89 @ 2:00pm ET
06/28/06 4:00pm ET 1246.38 – 06/29/06 +8.22 @ 2:00pm ET

Note that in 26 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 87% of the time, the S&P500 was trading higher at 2pm ET on the day of the announcement vs. the previous day’s close.

From an end-of-day perspective, keep an eye on the NYSE advance/decline ratio as the S&P attempts to erase this morning’s losses. Should the SPX close higher and the advance/decline ratio remain below .60, it would indicate a lower close is in store Tuesday. Every occurrence of this combination since 1990 is listed below. Note that in 23 out of 28 instances, or 82% of the time the S&P close lower the next day…

S&P Closes Up, NYSE Adv/Dec Ratio <.60
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next day
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next day
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next day
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next day
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next day
06/09/08… S&P500 -0.2% next day
12/13/07… S&P500 -1.4% next day
03/23/05… S&P500 -0.1% next day
02/18/05… S&P500 -1.5% next day
04/23/04… S&P500 -0.5% next day
01/29/04… S&P500 -0.3% next day
08/04/03… S&P500 -1.8% next day
09/10/01… S&P500 -4.9% next day
10/18/99… S&P500 +0.6% next day
09/16/99… S&P500 +1.3%  next day
05/17/99… S&P500 -0.5% next day
07/27/98… S&P500 -1.5% next day
06/12/98… S&P500 -2.0% next day
04/03/97… S&P500 +1.0% next day
03/17/97… S&P500 -0.8% next day
06/07/96… S&P500 -0.2% next day
03/06/95… S&P500 -0.7% next day
01/23/95… S&P500 +0.0% next day
10/25/94… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/19/94… S&P500 -0.1% next day
03/31/94… S&P500 -1.5% next day
03/02/94… S&P500 -0.4% next day
03/15/91… S&P500 -0.4% next day

Currently the adv/dec ratio stands at .58 with the SPX off 0.1%.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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