First Lower Close After a Series of Up Days

In his morning update, Charles Kirk noted that “five up days in the S&P followed by a down day often leads to more upside near-term.” To illustrate this point, I’ve extracted each of the last thirty instances in which the SPX closed lower (as it did Monday) after a series of five or more up days. Note the definitive tendency for the dominant uptrend to resume the following session. In 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% random chance for a higher SPX close one day later in the same time frame. A nice, simple pattern to keep in mind the next time around…

First down day after a series of five or more up days
03/08/10… S&P500 ??? next day
01/12/10… S&P500 +0.8% next day
12/29/09… S&P500 +0.0% next day
11/10/09… S&P500 +0.5% next day
10/13/09… S&P500 +1.8% next day
09/11/09… S&P500 +0.6% next day
12/01/08… S&P500 +4.0% next day
07/10/07… S&P500 +0.6% next day
06/05/07… S&P500 -0.9% next day
05/08/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
04/19/07… S&P500 +0.9% next day
04/11/07… S&P500 +0.6% next day
11/20/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
10/27/06… S&P500 +0.0% next day
08/21/06… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/20/06… S&P500 -0.6% next day
01/10/06… S&P500 +0.4% next day
11/28/05… S&P500 +0.0% next day
10/03/05… S&P500 -1.0% next day
07/18/05… S&P500 +0.7% next day
06/20/05… S&P500 -0.2% next day
02/17/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/08/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day
08/03/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day
05/28/04… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/08/03… S&P500 +0.5% next day
09/05/03… S&P500 +1.0% next day
08/13/03… S&P500 +0.7% next day
06/06/03… S&P500 -1.2% next day
05/29/03… S&P500 +1.5% next day
03/24/03… S&P500 +1.2% next day

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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