Watching New 52-week Lows for Non-Confirmation

With the SPX and NDX falling to fresh 5-day lows Thursday, it’s noteworthy that new 52-week lows haven’t expanded on either the NYSE or NASDAQ. Current data shows NYSE and NASDAQ new lows flat compared with yesterday. This data usually ends up being revised after the close, so it’s too soon to say, but if the final number of new 52-week lows does not expand above yesterday’s levels (7 on NYSE, 15 on NASDAQ), it would have short-term bullish implications. The last thirty times we’ve seen this pattern triggered are listed in the table below. Note that in 28 out of 30 cases, or 93% of the time, the S&P closed higher (above the setup day’s close) within the next two sessions, significantly above the 68% at-any-time odds for a higher SPX close within two days…

SPX & NDX Hit 5-Day Lows, New 52-week Lows Fail to Expand
01/28/10… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/20/09… Higher SPX close one session later
08/11/09… Higher SPX close one session later
07/07/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
02/23/09… Higher SPX close one session later
12/02/08… Higher SPX close one session later
11/21/08… Higher SPX close one session later
10/09/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/07/08… No higher close within two sessions
09/18/08… Higher SPX close one session later
09/17/08… Higher SPX close one session later
08/20/08… Higher SPX close one session later
06/12/08… Higher SPX close one session later
06/03/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/23/08… Higher SPX close one session later
01/07/08… No higher close within two sessions
01/02/08… Higher SPX close one session later
11/21/07… Higher SPX close one session later
11/12/07… Higher SPX close one session later
11/09/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
07/31/07… Higher SPX close one session later
06/08/07… Higher SPX close one session later
04/12/07… Higher SPX close one session later
12/22/06… Higher SPX close one session later
11/03/06… Higher SPX close one session later
05/18/06… Higher SPX close one session later
01/03/06… Higher SPX close one session later
12/08/05… Higher SPX close one session later
11/30/05… Higher SPX close one session later
08/24/05… Higher SPX close one session later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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