RUT 2-day RSI Signals Unusually Persistent Uptrend
By
Rennie on Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Interesting to note that the 2-day RSI for the Russell 2000 is set to close above 98 for a fourth consecutive session Monday, something that hasn’t happened since 2003. Historically, a rally this persistent tends to lead to further upside over the intermediate-term, with the Russell higher one week later 60% of the time. The more significant takeaway is the limited downside potential over the following week. Note that in only three cases out of thirty, or 10% of the time, did the RUT fall more than 1% in the one-week period following four consecutive 2-day RSI readings over 98. That’s well below the 29% random chance for a 1%+ loss over any five-trading day period in the same time frame, indicating weakness over the short-term could prove to be a buying opportunity looking out to next Monday. To keep the 2-day RSI over 98 a fourth session, the RUT needs to settle above 631.56 today…
RUT 2-day RSI >98 Four Sessions
08/20/03… RUT +0.3% one week later
06/02/03… RUT +0.5% one week later
08/29/00… RUT +1.3% one week later
12/29/99… RUT -3.7% one week later (*)
11/05/99… RUT +1.7% one week later
11/04/98… RUT +0.1% one week later
10/23/98… RUT +3.0% one week later
02/11/98… RUT +0.5% one week later
10/07/97… RUT +0.0% one week later
09/23/97… RUT +1.0% one week later
09/05/97… RUT +1.6% one week later
05/28/97… RUT +1.3% one week later
05/17/96… RUT +1.1% one week later
04/26/96… RUT -0.3% one week later
01/29/96… RUT +2.1% one week later
12/04/95… RUT -0.1% one week later
09/11/95… RUT -0.5% one week later
07/11/95… RUT +0.9% one week later
06/20/95… RUT -0.8% one week later
02/10/95… RUT -0.3% one week later
08/26/94… RUT +0.6% one week later
01/19/94… RUT +0.1% one week later
12/08/93… RUT -1.8% one week later (*)
10/04/93… RUT +0.6% one week later
05/07/93… RUT -0.2% one week later
03/11/93… RUT -0.6% one week later
01/25/93… RUT -0.1% one week later
12/01/92… RUT +1.9% one week later
08/03/92… RUT -1.3% one week later (*)
07/17/91… RUT -0.7% one week later
RUT 2-day RSI Signals Unusually Persistent Uptrend
By Rennie on Monday, February 22nd, 2010 at 3:17 pmInteresting to note that the 2-day RSI for the Russell 2000 is set to close above 98 for a fourth consecutive session Monday, something that hasn’t happened since 2003. Historically, a rally this persistent tends to lead to further upside over the intermediate-term, with the Russell higher one week later 60% of the time. The more significant takeaway is the limited downside potential over the following week. Note that in only three cases out of thirty, or 10% of the time, did the RUT fall more than 1% in the one-week period following four consecutive 2-day RSI readings over 98. That’s well below the 29% random chance for a 1%+ loss over any five-trading day period in the same time frame, indicating weakness over the short-term could prove to be a buying opportunity looking out to next Monday. To keep the 2-day RSI over 98 a fourth session, the RUT needs to settle above 631.56 today…
RUT 2-day RSI >98 Four Sessions
08/20/03… RUT +0.3% one week later
06/02/03… RUT +0.5% one week later
08/29/00… RUT +1.3% one week later
12/29/99… RUT -3.7% one week later (*)
11/05/99… RUT +1.7% one week later
11/04/98… RUT +0.1% one week later
10/23/98… RUT +3.0% one week later
02/11/98… RUT +0.5% one week later
10/07/97… RUT +0.0% one week later
09/23/97… RUT +1.0% one week later
09/05/97… RUT +1.6% one week later
05/28/97… RUT +1.3% one week later
05/17/96… RUT +1.1% one week later
04/26/96… RUT -0.3% one week later
01/29/96… RUT +2.1% one week later
12/04/95… RUT -0.1% one week later
09/11/95… RUT -0.5% one week later
07/11/95… RUT +0.9% one week later
06/20/95… RUT -0.8% one week later
02/10/95… RUT -0.3% one week later
08/26/94… RUT +0.6% one week later
01/19/94… RUT +0.1% one week later
12/08/93… RUT -1.8% one week later (*)
10/04/93… RUT +0.6% one week later
05/07/93… RUT -0.2% one week later
03/11/93… RUT -0.6% one week later
01/25/93… RUT -0.1% one week later
12/01/92… RUT +1.9% one week later
08/03/92… RUT -1.3% one week later (*)
07/17/91… RUT -0.7% one week later