NYSE TICK Never Hits +700 in Thursday Trade
By
Rennie on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 12:34 am
Completely one-sided trade Thursday as buyers were nowhere to be found. NYSE TICK never even managed to trade above the +700 level, making Thursday the lowest intraday high for the TICK since March 19th, 2008. Below I’ve extracted the last thirty instances in which the NYSE TICK posted its lowest intraday high in at least two months…
NYSE TICK Posts Lowest High in Two Months
02/04/10… ???
12/22/09… Higher S&P close one session later
12/21/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/28/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/02/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/22/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/16/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
03/02/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
12/24/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/09/08… Higher S&P close one session later
06/11/08… Higher S&P close one session later
05/30/08… Higher S&P close four sessions later
05/07/08… Higher S&P close one session later
03/06/08… Higher S&P close three sessions later
02/21/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/19/07… Higher S&P close one session later
10/08/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/24/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/16/07… Higher S&P close three sessions later
07/11/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/10/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
05/07/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/30/07… Higher S&P close one session later
12/18/06… Higher S&P close one session later
12/15/06… No higher close within four sessions
11/27/06… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/06… Higher S&P close one session later
09/06/06… Higher S&P close four sessions later
08/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
05/08/06… Higher S&P close one session later
It’s interesting to note that the low TICK often preceded a short-term bounce, perhaps because selling pressure is temporarily exhausted. In 29 out of the last 30 occurrences, the S&P posted a higher close (above the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions. That sounds like a good edge, but the random chance for a close above today’s session within the next four days is nearly 80%, so a short-term setup like this would need a perfect track record to qualify as a significant edge. The better odds play is that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time the S&P closed higher the next day vs. a 54% random chance in the same time frame. That still just misses qualifying as a signal, but it’s close. Given the surge in new 20-day lows noted earlier today, we need to respect the short-term momentum created by Thursday’s selloff, meaning a higher close on Friday could represent a short-term selling opportunity targeting a close below Thursday by early next week. At that point, barring any significant new developments, we’ll most likely look for buyers to resurface given the intermediate-term positive signals still on the board.
NYSE TICK Never Hits +700 in Thursday Trade
By Rennie on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 12:34 amCompletely one-sided trade Thursday as buyers were nowhere to be found. NYSE TICK never even managed to trade above the +700 level, making Thursday the lowest intraday high for the TICK since March 19th, 2008. Below I’ve extracted the last thirty instances in which the NYSE TICK posted its lowest intraday high in at least two months…
NYSE TICK Posts Lowest High in Two Months
02/04/10… ???
12/22/09… Higher S&P close one session later
12/21/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/28/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/02/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/22/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/16/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
03/02/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
12/24/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/09/08… Higher S&P close one session later
06/11/08… Higher S&P close one session later
05/30/08… Higher S&P close four sessions later
05/07/08… Higher S&P close one session later
03/06/08… Higher S&P close three sessions later
02/21/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/19/07… Higher S&P close one session later
10/08/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/24/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/16/07… Higher S&P close three sessions later
07/11/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/10/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
05/07/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/30/07… Higher S&P close one session later
12/18/06… Higher S&P close one session later
12/15/06… No higher close within four sessions
11/27/06… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/06… Higher S&P close one session later
09/06/06… Higher S&P close four sessions later
08/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
05/08/06… Higher S&P close one session later
It’s interesting to note that the low TICK often preceded a short-term bounce, perhaps because selling pressure is temporarily exhausted. In 29 out of the last 30 occurrences, the S&P posted a higher close (above the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions. That sounds like a good edge, but the random chance for a close above today’s session within the next four days is nearly 80%, so a short-term setup like this would need a perfect track record to qualify as a significant edge. The better odds play is that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time the S&P closed higher the next day vs. a 54% random chance in the same time frame. That still just misses qualifying as a signal, but it’s close. Given the surge in new 20-day lows noted earlier today, we need to respect the short-term momentum created by Thursday’s selloff, meaning a higher close on Friday could represent a short-term selling opportunity targeting a close below Thursday by early next week. At that point, barring any significant new developments, we’ll most likely look for buyers to resurface given the intermediate-term positive signals still on the board.