Keep in Mind Negative TICKscore if SPX Closes Up
By
Rennie on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
With the S&P staging a late-day comeback, keep in mind our TICKscore indicator is going to close in negative territory (currently -29). An up day with a negative TICKscore is vulnerable to selling pressure the following session given the lack of institutional support. The table below highlights the last thirty separate instances in which the S&P500 closed higher and our TICKscore indicator settled below zero…
S&P Closes Higher, TICKscore <0
01/25/10… S&P500 -0.4% next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/21/09… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/02/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/15/09… S&P500 -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/09/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session (*)
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
02/11/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
01/13/09… S&P500 -3.4% next session
12/10/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next session (*)
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next session (*)
09/16/08… S&P500 -4.7% next session
09/10/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
09/08/08… S&P500 -3.4% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/25/08… S&P500 -1.9% next session
07/10/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
In 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. In only five cases did the S&P close up 0.5% or more the next session, while it fell 0.5%+ seventeen times.
Keep in Mind Negative TICKscore if SPX Closes Up
By Rennie on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 3:27 pmWith the S&P staging a late-day comeback, keep in mind our TICKscore indicator is going to close in negative territory (currently -29). An up day with a negative TICKscore is vulnerable to selling pressure the following session given the lack of institutional support. The table below highlights the last thirty separate instances in which the S&P500 closed higher and our TICKscore indicator settled below zero…
S&P Closes Higher, TICKscore <0
01/25/10… S&P500 -0.4% next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/21/09… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/02/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/15/09… S&P500 -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/09/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session (*)
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
02/11/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
01/13/09… S&P500 -3.4% next session
12/10/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next session (*)
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next session (*)
09/16/08… S&P500 -4.7% next session
09/10/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
09/08/08… S&P500 -3.4% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/25/08… S&P500 -1.9% next session
07/10/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
In 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. In only five cases did the S&P close up 0.5% or more the next session, while it fell 0.5%+ seventeen times.