Interactive End-of-Day Charts
By
Rennie on Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 at 2:33 am
NYSE TICK action reflected a general absence of institutional sellers Tuesday, with both our Cumulative TICK and TICKscore indicators managing to close in positive territory despite the market selloff. I expected that type of action to have short-term bullish implications but the results were much more mixed. The last six occurrences gives you some idea…
Breadth 2:1 Negative, Cumulative TICK Positive
02/23/10… S&P500 ??? two days later
11/27/09… S&P500 +1.6% two days later
05/11/09… S&P500 -2.8% two days later
03/24/09… S&P500 +3.3% two days later
01/09/09… S&P500 -2.1% two days later
12/04/08… S&P500 +7.6% two days later
10/21/08… S&P500 -4.9% two days later
The one thing in common is that the market often made a solid directional move one way or the other.
TRIN closed at a high 3.03, although this hasn’t been a reliable indicator for some time. In only 20 out of the last 30 cases of a 3+ closing TRIN did the S&P close higher the following session, only a bit above the 55% random chance for a higher close one day later.
The final number of new 20-day lows across all exchanges came in at 330 Tuesday, triggering the setup discussed in this earlier intraday update. In addition, a very similar but slightly more reliable variation of that signal was also triggered. The table below lists the last thirty instances in which S&P futures hit a five-day low and new 20-day lows dropped from the previous session…
S&P Futures Hit Five-Day Low, New 20-day Lows Drop
02/23/10… ???
01/29/10… Higher S&P close one session later
01/28/10… Higher S&P close two sessions later
12/31/09… Higher S&P close one session later
11/20/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/30/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/07/09… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
06/16/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/15/09… Higher S&P close one session later
03/03/09… Higher S&P close one session later
02/23/09… Higher S&P close one session later
02/19/09… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
11/21/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/27/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/09/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/07/08… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
09/18/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
08/20/08… Higher S&P close one session later
07/28/08… Higher S&P close one session later
07/14/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
07/02/08… Higher S&P close one session later
06/12/08… Higher S&P close one session later
05/09/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/15/08… Higher S&P close one session later
01/08/08… Higher S&P close one session later
01/07/08… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
12/18/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/21/07… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/05/07… Higher S&P close one session later
The positive divergence led to a higher S&P close (above the setup day’s close) within the next two sessions in 26 out of 30 cases, or 87% of the time, significantly above the 66% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P close within two sessions in the same time frame.
By popular demand, a couple of charts are returning to the end-of-day rotation… The long-term trendline channel seen on the logarithmic chart of the S&P500 stretching back to the 30’s (more on this soon), and the detailed view of NYSE up/down volume percentages. We’re also looking into adding interactive versions of our end-of-day charts. These charts allow subscribers to scroll through years of daily data at various zoom levels to see how indicators performed under a variety of conditions. This takes our static long-term charts a step further as you can not only see a big picture overview, but can zoom into a particular time frame of interest for a closer look. Plus, the daily values for the indicator update dynamically as you mouse over the chart. See this interactive version of our Standard & Poors Oscillator from 2000-present for an example. You can use the zoom links on the upper left of the chart, then scroll through the history with the slider window along the bottom (or just click and drag on the chart itself). That slider window can also be dragged left & right to re-size the zoom to a custom level.
Interactive End-of-Day Charts
By Rennie on Wednesday, February 24th, 2010 at 2:33 amNYSE TICK action reflected a general absence of institutional sellers Tuesday, with both our Cumulative TICK and TICKscore indicators managing to close in positive territory despite the market selloff. I expected that type of action to have short-term bullish implications but the results were much more mixed. The last six occurrences gives you some idea…
Breadth 2:1 Negative, Cumulative TICK Positive
02/23/10… S&P500 ??? two days later
11/27/09… S&P500 +1.6% two days later
05/11/09… S&P500 -2.8% two days later
03/24/09… S&P500 +3.3% two days later
01/09/09… S&P500 -2.1% two days later
12/04/08… S&P500 +7.6% two days later
10/21/08… S&P500 -4.9% two days later
The one thing in common is that the market often made a solid directional move one way or the other.
TRIN closed at a high 3.03, although this hasn’t been a reliable indicator for some time. In only 20 out of the last 30 cases of a 3+ closing TRIN did the S&P close higher the following session, only a bit above the 55% random chance for a higher close one day later.
The final number of new 20-day lows across all exchanges came in at 330 Tuesday, triggering the setup discussed in this earlier intraday update. In addition, a very similar but slightly more reliable variation of that signal was also triggered. The table below lists the last thirty instances in which S&P futures hit a five-day low and new 20-day lows dropped from the previous session…
S&P Futures Hit Five-Day Low, New 20-day Lows Drop
02/23/10… ???
01/29/10… Higher S&P close one session later
01/28/10… Higher S&P close two sessions later
12/31/09… Higher S&P close one session later
11/20/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/30/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/07/09… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
06/16/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/15/09… Higher S&P close one session later
03/03/09… Higher S&P close one session later
02/23/09… Higher S&P close one session later
02/19/09… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
11/21/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/27/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/09/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/07/08… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
09/18/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
08/20/08… Higher S&P close one session later
07/28/08… Higher S&P close one session later
07/14/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
07/02/08… Higher S&P close one session later
06/12/08… Higher S&P close one session later
05/09/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/15/08… Higher S&P close one session later
01/08/08… Higher S&P close one session later
01/07/08… No close >entry within 1-2 sessions
12/18/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/21/07… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/05/07… Higher S&P close one session later
The positive divergence led to a higher S&P close (above the setup day’s close) within the next two sessions in 26 out of 30 cases, or 87% of the time, significantly above the 66% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P close within two sessions in the same time frame.
By popular demand, a couple of charts are returning to the end-of-day rotation… The long-term trendline channel seen on the logarithmic chart of the S&P500 stretching back to the 30’s (more on this soon), and the detailed view of NYSE up/down volume percentages. We’re also looking into adding interactive versions of our end-of-day charts. These charts allow subscribers to scroll through years of daily data at various zoom levels to see how indicators performed under a variety of conditions. This takes our static long-term charts a step further as you can not only see a big picture overview, but can zoom into a particular time frame of interest for a closer look. Plus, the daily values for the indicator update dynamically as you mouse over the chart. See this interactive version of our Standard & Poors Oscillator from 2000-present for an example. You can use the zoom links on the upper left of the chart, then scroll through the history with the slider window along the bottom (or just click and drag on the chart itself). That slider window can also be dragged left & right to re-size the zoom to a custom level.