Divergence Watch: New 20-day Highs Still Not Confirming
By
Rennie on Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
New 20-day highs failing to expand with the market Tuesday, currently at 226 vs 246 Monday and 278 on Friday. I went back and noted the last thirty times in which the S&P was up more than 0.75% from its two-day ago close and 20-day highs failed to expand. In the majority of cases, the S&P turned around and traded lower the next day…
S&P +0.75% over Two Days, 20-day Highs Contract
11/03/09… S&P500 +0.1% next session
08/10/09… S&P500 -1.3% next session
07/17/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
06/12/09… S&P500 -2.4% next session
05/08/09… S&P500 -2.2% next session
05/06/09… S&P500 -1.3% next session
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.1% next session
03/04/09… S&P500 -4.3% next session
02/25/09… S&P500 -1.6% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/22/09… S&P500 +0.5% next session
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next session
10/13/08… S&P500 -0.5% next session
10/01/08… S&P500 -4.0% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/25/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
09/11/08… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/10/08… S&P500 -1.4% next session
09/14/07… S&P500 -0.5% next session
08/24/07… S&P500 -0.9% next session
08/20/07… S&P500 +0.1% next session
08/02/07… S&P500 -2.7% next session
05/17/07… S&P500 +0.7% next session
03/15/07… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/31/06… S&P500 -0.5% next session
07/24/06… S&P500 +0.6% next session
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/04/06… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/14/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
08/03/05… S&P500 -0.7% next session
In 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly above the 46% random chance for a lower SPX close one day later in the same time frame. In only two cases did the S&P gain 1%+, while it fell 1%+ twelve times. For this setup to go into effect, new 20-day highs need to hold below 278.
Divergence Watch: New 20-day Highs Still Not Confirming
By Rennie on Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 at 3:28 pmNew 20-day highs failing to expand with the market Tuesday, currently at 226 vs 246 Monday and 278 on Friday. I went back and noted the last thirty times in which the S&P was up more than 0.75% from its two-day ago close and 20-day highs failed to expand. In the majority of cases, the S&P turned around and traded lower the next day…
S&P +0.75% over Two Days, 20-day Highs Contract
11/03/09… S&P500 +0.1% next session
08/10/09… S&P500 -1.3% next session
07/17/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
06/12/09… S&P500 -2.4% next session
05/08/09… S&P500 -2.2% next session
05/06/09… S&P500 -1.3% next session
03/17/09… S&P500 +2.1% next session
03/04/09… S&P500 -4.3% next session
02/25/09… S&P500 -1.6% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/22/09… S&P500 +0.5% next session
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next session
10/13/08… S&P500 -0.5% next session
10/01/08… S&P500 -4.0% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/25/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
09/11/08… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/10/08… S&P500 -1.4% next session
09/14/07… S&P500 -0.5% next session
08/24/07… S&P500 -0.9% next session
08/20/07… S&P500 +0.1% next session
08/02/07… S&P500 -2.7% next session
05/17/07… S&P500 +0.7% next session
03/15/07… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/31/06… S&P500 -0.5% next session
07/24/06… S&P500 +0.6% next session
04/05/06… S&P500 -0.2% next session
04/04/06… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/14/05… S&P500 -0.1% next session
08/03/05… S&P500 -0.7% next session
In 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly above the 46% random chance for a lower SPX close one day later in the same time frame. In only two cases did the S&P gain 1%+, while it fell 1%+ twelve times. For this setup to go into effect, new 20-day highs need to hold below 278.