Divergence w/ New 20-day Lows Points to a Big Move
By
Rennie on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 at 3:30 pm
Despite the S&P500 trading 1.3% below Monday’s lows, we’re seeing a contraction in new 20-day lows across all exchanges (currently 272 vs. 363 yesterday). This is a short-term positive divergence that points to a higher close on Wednesday. Below are each of the last thirty occurrences in which the S&P500 traded 0.5%+ below the previous day’s low and new 20-day lows contracted from the previous session…
S&P500 Trades 0.5%+ Below Yesterday’s Low, New 20-day Lows Contract
01/29/10… S&P500 +1.4% next day
12/31/09… S&P500 +1.6% next day
10/30/09… S&P500 +0.7% next day
07/07/09… S&P500 -0.2% next day
06/16/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/03/09… S&P500 +1.2% next day
04/28/09… S&P500 +2.2% next day
04/14/09… S&P500 +1.3% next day
04/01/09… S&P500 +2.9% next day
03/20/09… S&P500 +7.1% next day
03/03/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
02/23/09… S&P500 +4.0% next day
12/18/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next day
10/27/08… S&P500 +10.8% next day
10/09/08… S&P500 -1.2% next day
10/07/08… S&P500 -1.1% next day
09/22/08… S&P500 -1.6% next day
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next day
09/17/08… S&P500 +4.3% next day
08/07/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
07/28/08… S&P500 +2.3% next day
03/27/08… S&P500 -0.8% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
01/08/08… S&P500 +1.4% next day
01/07/08… S&P500 -1.8% next day
12/18/07… S&P500 -0.1% next day
11/12/07… S&P500 +2.9% next day
12/10/03… S&P500 +1.2% next day
10/24/03… S&P500 +0.2% next day
Note that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher the following session, well above the 55% random chance for a higher S&P close one day later in the same time frame. Nineteen times the S&P closed up over 1% the next day, 5 times the S&P closed down over 1%. Noteworthy that the market has invariably staged a big move the day after this pattern, with 80% of days leading to a gain/loss in excess of 1%. That’s significantly above the 27% random chance for an absolute move of 1%+ one day later, reinforcing the likelihood of another large directional move on Wednesday.
Divergence w/ New 20-day Lows Points to a Big Move
By Rennie on Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010 at 3:30 pmDespite the S&P500 trading 1.3% below Monday’s lows, we’re seeing a contraction in new 20-day lows across all exchanges (currently 272 vs. 363 yesterday). This is a short-term positive divergence that points to a higher close on Wednesday. Below are each of the last thirty occurrences in which the S&P500 traded 0.5%+ below the previous day’s low and new 20-day lows contracted from the previous session…
S&P500 Trades 0.5%+ Below Yesterday’s Low, New 20-day Lows Contract
01/29/10… S&P500 +1.4% next day
12/31/09… S&P500 +1.6% next day
10/30/09… S&P500 +0.7% next day
07/07/09… S&P500 -0.2% next day
06/16/09… S&P500 -0.1% next day
06/03/09… S&P500 +1.2% next day
04/28/09… S&P500 +2.2% next day
04/14/09… S&P500 +1.3% next day
04/01/09… S&P500 +2.9% next day
03/20/09… S&P500 +7.1% next day
03/03/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
02/23/09… S&P500 +4.0% next day
12/18/08… S&P500 +0.3% next day
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next day
10/27/08… S&P500 +10.8% next day
10/09/08… S&P500 -1.2% next day
10/07/08… S&P500 -1.1% next day
09/22/08… S&P500 -1.6% next day
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next day
09/17/08… S&P500 +4.3% next day
08/07/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
07/28/08… S&P500 +2.3% next day
03/27/08… S&P500 -0.8% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
01/08/08… S&P500 +1.4% next day
01/07/08… S&P500 -1.8% next day
12/18/07… S&P500 -0.1% next day
11/12/07… S&P500 +2.9% next day
12/10/03… S&P500 +1.2% next day
10/24/03… S&P500 +0.2% next day
Note that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher the following session, well above the 55% random chance for a higher S&P close one day later in the same time frame. Nineteen times the S&P closed up over 1% the next day, 5 times the S&P closed down over 1%. Noteworthy that the market has invariably staged a big move the day after this pattern, with 80% of days leading to a gain/loss in excess of 1%. That’s significantly above the 27% random chance for an absolute move of 1%+ one day later, reinforcing the likelihood of another large directional move on Wednesday.