Poor NYSE TICK Action as Institutions Remain Better Sellers
By
Rennie on Monday, January 25th, 2010 at 8:45 pm
NYSE TICK barely traded above +800 during Monday’s weak bounce, indicating a complete absence of institutional buyers. Recall that the TICK is calculated by subtracting the number of NYSE stocks that last traded on a downtick from the number of stocks that last traded on an uptick. Readings well above average suggest institutional buy programs are in effect, while below-average readings point to intraday sell programs. Our TICKscore indicator is designed to measure the number of such buy & sell programs hitting the tape each day, and on Monday it closed at -7, reflecting the fact that institutions were actually better sellers during Monday’s rally. In the table below I’ve listed the last thirty separate instances in which the S&P500 closed higher and our TICKscore indicator settled below zero…
S&P Closes Higher, TICKscore <0
01/25/10… S&P500 ??? next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/21/09… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/02/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/15/09… S&P500 -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/09/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session (*)
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
02/11/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
01/13/09… S&P500 -3.4% next session
12/10/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next session (*)
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next session (*)
09/16/08… S&P500 -4.7% next session
09/10/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
09/08/08… S&P500 -3.4% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/25/08… S&P500 -1.9% next session
07/10/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
Note that in 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. In only five cases did the S&P close up 0.5% or more the next session, while it fell 0.5%+ seventeen times. Combined with the light SPY volume on Monday and surge in new 20-day lows at the end of last week, odds appear to favor further downside over the short-term.
Poor NYSE TICK Action as Institutions Remain Better Sellers
By Rennie on Monday, January 25th, 2010 at 8:45 pmNYSE TICK barely traded above +800 during Monday’s weak bounce, indicating a complete absence of institutional buyers. Recall that the TICK is calculated by subtracting the number of NYSE stocks that last traded on a downtick from the number of stocks that last traded on an uptick. Readings well above average suggest institutional buy programs are in effect, while below-average readings point to intraday sell programs. Our TICKscore indicator is designed to measure the number of such buy & sell programs hitting the tape each day, and on Monday it closed at -7, reflecting the fact that institutions were actually better sellers during Monday’s rally. In the table below I’ve listed the last thirty separate instances in which the S&P500 closed higher and our TICKscore indicator settled below zero…
S&P Closes Higher, TICKscore <0
01/25/10… S&P500 ??? next session
12/30/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
12/21/09… S&P500 +0.4% next session
12/16/09… S&P500 -1.2% next session
11/11/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
11/02/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
10/15/09… S&P500 -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P500 -0.3% next session
07/09/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
07/06/09… S&P500 -2.0% next session
03/25/09… S&P500 +2.3% next session (*)
03/06/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
02/11/09… S&P500 +0.2% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session (*)
01/13/09… S&P500 -3.4% next session
12/10/08… S&P500 -2.9% next session
11/21/08… S&P500 +6.5% next session (*)
11/18/08… S&P500 -6.1% next session
11/13/08… S&P500 -4.2% next session
10/23/08… S&P500 -3.5% next session
09/26/08… S&P500 -8.8% next session
09/18/08… S&P500 +4.0% next session (*)
09/16/08… S&P500 -4.7% next session
09/10/08… S&P500 +1.4% next session (*)
09/08/08… S&P500 -3.4% next session
08/20/08… S&P500 +0.3% next session
07/25/08… S&P500 -1.9% next session
07/10/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
07/03/08… S&P500 -0.8% next session
06/30/08… S&P500 +0.4% next session
06/23/08… S&P500 -0.3% next session
Note that in 20 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 67% of the time, the S&P500 closed lower the following session, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P one day later in the same time frame. In only five cases did the S&P close up 0.5% or more the next session, while it fell 0.5%+ seventeen times. Combined with the light SPY volume on Monday and surge in new 20-day lows at the end of last week, odds appear to favor further downside over the short-term.