New Lows Point to Waning Downside Momentum

Another short-term bullish setup is set to trigger today based on the new high/low data. While both the SPX and NDX hit one-month lows Thursday, new 52-week lows are set to come in lower than Wednesday’s session on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. Since the inception of the Nasdaq100 in 1985, there have only been 36 instances in which the SPX and NDX hit one-month lows and new 52-week lows declined on both exchanges, all of which are listed in the table below. Note that in 34 out of 36 cases, or 94% of the time, the S&P closed at a subsequently higher level 2-4 trading days later, significantly greater than the 70% at-any-time odds of a higher S&P 2-4 days later…

NDX & SPX Hit One-Month Lows, New 52-week Lows Decline
07/07/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
02/23/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/21/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/09/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/07/08… Higher SPX close four sessions later
09/17/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/12/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/23/08… Higher SPX close three sessions later
01/07/08… Higher SPX close three sessions later
11/12/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/09/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
07/31/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
05/18/06… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/03/06… Higher SPX close two sessions later
08/24/05… Higher SPX close three sessions later
04/18/05… Higher SPX close three sessions later
08/13/04… Higher SPX close two sessions later
07/23/04… Higher SPX close two sessions later
09/29/03… Higher SPX close two sessions later
08/05/03… Higher SPX close two sessions later
12/31/02… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/08/02… Higher SPX close two sessions later
09/20/02… Higher SPX close four sessions later
09/18/01… No higher SPX close 2-4 sessions later
03/20/01… Higher SPX close four sessions later
12/21/00… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/13/00… Higher SPX close four sessions later
10/18/99… Higher SPX close two sessions later
09/01/98… Higher SPX close four sessions later
08/28/98… No higher SPX close 2-4 sessions later
06/24/93… Higher SPX close two sessions later
02/17/93… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/18/92… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/26/90… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/11/88… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/21/88… Higher SPX close two sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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