Institutional Investors Absent 19 Days & Counting
By
Rennie on Monday, January 11th, 2010 at 8:57 pm
S&P futures closed higher for a sixth consecutive session Monday but for the first time this year, settled below the open (regular trading hours). That’s a generally negative indication for Tuesday given that the black candlestick comes after a series of rally days. Looking back at times when S&P futures formed a similar pattern of three rally days (higher closes, white candles) followed by a fourth higher close that coincided with a black candle, we can see that the settlement below the open typically ushers in a very short-term change of trend. Since 1995 we’ve seen this specific pattern a total of 22 separate times, 18 of which led to a lower S&P close the following session…
Higher Close, Black Candle After Three Rally Days
01/11/10… S&P futures ??? next session
12/23/09… S&P futures +0.6% next session
11/11/09… S&P futures -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P futures -0.3% next session
07/21/09… S&P futures -0.4% next session
01/06/09… S&P futures -2.7% next session
05/30/08…S&P futures -1.1% next session
11/30/07… S&P futures -0.6% next session
04/09/07… S&P futures +0.1% next session
11/16/06… S&P futures -0.0% next session
09/15/06… S&P futures +0.2% next session
04/21/06… S&P futures -0.2% next session
03/17/06… S&P futures -0.2% next session
07/14/05… S&P futures -0.0% next session
11/01/04… S&P futures -0.0% next session
05/28/03… S&P futures -0.3% next session
10/20/98… S&P futures -0.1% next session
01/30/98… S&P futures +1.6% next session
06/16/97… S&P futures -0.2% next session
12/20/96… S&P futures -0.4% next session
05/15/96… S&P futures -0.1% next session
02/07/95… S&P futures -0.1% next session
01/27/95… S&P futures -0.3% next session
A lower close on Tuesday would also fulfill the short-term negative setup related to the six consecutive higher closes for the Equal Weight S&P500 (see intraday update).
Institutions are largely absent from the market, as evidenced by the long string of single-digit closing TICKscore readings. Today’s +2 close marked the 19th consecutive session that TICKscore has closed in single-digit territory. TICKscore measures the amount of time the NYSE TICK spends in extreme intraday territory, so the absence of any significant readings is a clear sign that institutions have been watching from the sidelines for the past month.
At the same time, investors have become increasingly optimistic, as evidenced by today’s second sub-0.50 equity put/call ratio. While indications suggest the potential for a down day on Tuesday, the recent string of declining equity put/call ratios should put us on alert for another upside try on Wednesday as investors will most likely buy the first dip.
Institutional Investors Absent 19 Days & Counting
By Rennie on Monday, January 11th, 2010 at 8:57 pmS&P futures closed higher for a sixth consecutive session Monday but for the first time this year, settled below the open (regular trading hours). That’s a generally negative indication for Tuesday given that the black candlestick comes after a series of rally days. Looking back at times when S&P futures formed a similar pattern of three rally days (higher closes, white candles) followed by a fourth higher close that coincided with a black candle, we can see that the settlement below the open typically ushers in a very short-term change of trend. Since 1995 we’ve seen this specific pattern a total of 22 separate times, 18 of which led to a lower S&P close the following session…
Higher Close, Black Candle After Three Rally Days
01/11/10… S&P futures ??? next session
12/23/09… S&P futures +0.6% next session
11/11/09… S&P futures -0.8% next session
10/12/09… S&P futures -0.3% next session
07/21/09… S&P futures -0.4% next session
01/06/09… S&P futures -2.7% next session
05/30/08…S&P futures -1.1% next session
11/30/07… S&P futures -0.6% next session
04/09/07… S&P futures +0.1% next session
11/16/06… S&P futures -0.0% next session
09/15/06… S&P futures +0.2% next session
04/21/06… S&P futures -0.2% next session
03/17/06… S&P futures -0.2% next session
07/14/05… S&P futures -0.0% next session
11/01/04… S&P futures -0.0% next session
05/28/03… S&P futures -0.3% next session
10/20/98… S&P futures -0.1% next session
01/30/98… S&P futures +1.6% next session
06/16/97… S&P futures -0.2% next session
12/20/96… S&P futures -0.4% next session
05/15/96… S&P futures -0.1% next session
02/07/95… S&P futures -0.1% next session
01/27/95… S&P futures -0.3% next session
A lower close on Tuesday would also fulfill the short-term negative setup related to the six consecutive higher closes for the Equal Weight S&P500 (see intraday update).
Institutions are largely absent from the market, as evidenced by the long string of single-digit closing TICKscore readings. Today’s +2 close marked the 19th consecutive session that TICKscore has closed in single-digit territory. TICKscore measures the amount of time the NYSE TICK spends in extreme intraday territory, so the absence of any significant readings is a clear sign that institutions have been watching from the sidelines for the past month.
At the same time, investors have become increasingly optimistic, as evidenced by today’s second sub-0.50 equity put/call ratio. While indications suggest the potential for a down day on Tuesday, the recent string of declining equity put/call ratios should put us on alert for another upside try on Wednesday as investors will most likely buy the first dip.