Fourth Lower Low for SPX
By
Rennie on Friday, January 29th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Institutions have been steady sellers Friday (TICKscore -25), keeping the pressure on stocks. The S&P500 has now posted its fourth consecutive lower low, which is noteworthy considering it’s also a 20-day low. Historically, this combination of four lower lows and a 20-day low often means selling pressure is at or near a short-term exhaustion point, and the S&P has a solid track record of rebounding over the next 1-2 sessions. The last 30 occurrences are listed below…
SPX Four Lower Lows & 20-day Low
01/29/10… ???
07/08/09… Higher SPX close one session later
03/03/09… Higher SPX close one session later
02/20/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/14/09… Higher SPX close one session later
11/20/08… Higher SPX close one session later
10/27/08… Higher SPX close one session later
10/07/08… No higher SPX close within two sessions
09/18/08… Higher SPX close one session later
09/04/08… Higher SPX close one session later
07/15/08… Higher SPX close one session later
07/07/08… Higher SPX close one session later
06/20/08… Higher SPX close one session later
03/04/08… Higher SPX close one session later
01/18/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/09/08… Higher SPX close one session later
11/12/07… Higher SPX close one session later
11/05/07… Higher SPX close one session later
07/27/07… Higher SPX close one session later
06/26/07… Higher SPX close one session later
06/07/07… Higher SPX close one session later
02/27/07… Higher SPX close one session later
07/14/06… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/08/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
05/22/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
05/15/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
04/11/06… Higher SPX close one session later
10/13/05… Higher SPX close one session later
10/06/05… Higher SPX close one session later
06/27/05… Higher SPX close one session later
03/23/05… Higher SPX close two sessions later
In 21 out of the last 22 occurrences, and in 26 of the last 30, the S&P closed higher one or two sessions later, well ahead of the 68% random odds for a close above today’s settlement within the next two sessions.
Fourth Lower Low for SPX
By Rennie on Friday, January 29th, 2010 at 3:31 pmInstitutions have been steady sellers Friday (TICKscore -25), keeping the pressure on stocks. The S&P500 has now posted its fourth consecutive lower low, which is noteworthy considering it’s also a 20-day low. Historically, this combination of four lower lows and a 20-day low often means selling pressure is at or near a short-term exhaustion point, and the S&P has a solid track record of rebounding over the next 1-2 sessions. The last 30 occurrences are listed below…
SPX Four Lower Lows & 20-day Low
01/29/10… ???
07/08/09… Higher SPX close one session later
03/03/09… Higher SPX close one session later
02/20/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/14/09… Higher SPX close one session later
11/20/08… Higher SPX close one session later
10/27/08… Higher SPX close one session later
10/07/08… No higher SPX close within two sessions
09/18/08… Higher SPX close one session later
09/04/08… Higher SPX close one session later
07/15/08… Higher SPX close one session later
07/07/08… Higher SPX close one session later
06/20/08… Higher SPX close one session later
03/04/08… Higher SPX close one session later
01/18/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/09/08… Higher SPX close one session later
11/12/07… Higher SPX close one session later
11/05/07… Higher SPX close one session later
07/27/07… Higher SPX close one session later
06/26/07… Higher SPX close one session later
06/07/07… Higher SPX close one session later
02/27/07… Higher SPX close one session later
07/14/06… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/08/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
05/22/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
05/15/06… No higher SPX close within two sessions
04/11/06… Higher SPX close one session later
10/13/05… Higher SPX close one session later
10/06/05… Higher SPX close one session later
06/27/05… Higher SPX close one session later
03/23/05… Higher SPX close two sessions later
In 21 out of the last 22 occurrences, and in 26 of the last 30, the S&P closed higher one or two sessions later, well ahead of the 68% random odds for a close above today’s settlement within the next two sessions.