Semiconductors and Financials Battling For Control
By
Rennie on Thursday, December 3rd, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Semiconductors and financials battling for control ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Currently the SOX is up nearly 2% on the session while the BKX is down more than 2%. Looking back at instances when a similar divergence initially occurred, it seems semiconductors usually win the battle for control over the short-term…
SOX +1%, BKX -1%
12/03/09… S&P500 ??? next session
07/17/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/27/09… S&P500 +1.5% next session
05/19/09… S&P500 -0.5% next session
04/30/09… S&P500 +0.5% next session
04/22/09… S&P500 +1.0% next session
04/08/09… S&P500 +3.8% next session
03/13/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
03/03/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session
12/09/08… S&P500 +1.2% next session
09/24/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
08/07/08… S&P500 +2.4% next session
07/15/08… S&P500 +2.5% next session
06/04/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
05/30/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/21/08… S&P500 -0.9% next session
04/09/08… S&P500 +0.5% next session
02/11/08… S&P500 +0.7% next session
01/18/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
03/06/07… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/14/06… S&P500 +2.1% next session
11/30/05… S&P500 +1.2% next session
10/19/04… S&P500 +0.0% next session
09/20/04… S&P500 +0.6% next session
05/07/04… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/02/04… S&P500 +0.8% next session
08/01/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
04/16/03… S&P500 +1.6% next session
09/24/02… S&P500 +2.5% next session
Of the last 30 instances in which the SOX closed up 1%+ and the BKX closed down 1%+ (for the first time in at least two sessions), the S&P rallied the next day in 22 out of 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, well ahead of the 54% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P one session later. The S&P fell more than 1% the next day only twice, while it rallied more than 1% thirteen times. The S&P closed up more than 1.5% ten times and never closed down more than 1.5%, suggesting if we’re going to see an outsized move on Friday, it will be to the upside.
Semiconductors and Financials Battling For Control
By Rennie on Thursday, December 3rd, 2009 at 3:19 pmSemiconductors and financials battling for control ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. Currently the SOX is up nearly 2% on the session while the BKX is down more than 2%. Looking back at instances when a similar divergence initially occurred, it seems semiconductors usually win the battle for control over the short-term…
SOX +1%, BKX -1%
12/03/09… S&P500 ??? next session
07/17/09… S&P500 +1.1% next session
05/27/09… S&P500 +1.5% next session
05/19/09… S&P500 -0.5% next session
04/30/09… S&P500 +0.5% next session
04/22/09… S&P500 +1.0% next session
04/08/09… S&P500 +3.8% next session
03/13/09… S&P500 -0.4% next session
03/03/09… S&P500 +2.4% next session
02/12/09… S&P500 -1.0% next session
01/15/09… S&P500 +0.8% next session
12/09/08… S&P500 +1.2% next session
09/24/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
08/07/08… S&P500 +2.4% next session
07/15/08… S&P500 +2.5% next session
06/04/08… S&P500 +2.0% next session
05/30/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/21/08… S&P500 -0.9% next session
04/09/08… S&P500 +0.5% next session
02/11/08… S&P500 +0.7% next session
01/18/08… S&P500 -1.1% next session
03/06/07… S&P500 -0.3% next session
06/14/06… S&P500 +2.1% next session
11/30/05… S&P500 +1.2% next session
10/19/04… S&P500 +0.0% next session
09/20/04… S&P500 +0.6% next session
05/07/04… S&P500 -1.1% next session
04/02/04… S&P500 +0.8% next session
08/01/03… S&P500 +0.3% next session
04/16/03… S&P500 +1.6% next session
09/24/02… S&P500 +2.5% next session
Of the last 30 instances in which the SOX closed up 1%+ and the BKX closed down 1%+ (for the first time in at least two sessions), the S&P rallied the next day in 22 out of 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, well ahead of the 54% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P one session later. The S&P fell more than 1% the next day only twice, while it rallied more than 1% thirteen times. The S&P closed up more than 1.5% ten times and never closed down more than 1.5%, suggesting if we’re going to see an outsized move on Friday, it will be to the upside.