Follow Up to ‘On Watch for a Rally Day After a Gap’
By
Rennie on Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
As a quick follow up to my previous post, I would add that the higher close isn’t what makes this pattern – it’s the higher high and higher low after a gap that’s truly short-term bullish. Whether the S&Ps settle higher isn’t that significant. Here’s a look at all instances in which S&P futures posted a higher high and low after an upside gap (regardless of whether the close was positive or negative)…
S&P Futures Higher High & Low after Upside Gap
12/02/09… ???
11/10/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/15/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/09/09… Higher S&P close one session later
09/09/09… Higher S&P close one session later
08/24/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/16/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/02/09… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
05/05/09… Higher S&P close one session later
04/13/09… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
11/25/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/02/08… Higher S&P close one session later
03/19/08… Higher S&P close one session later
12/24/07… Higher S&P close one session later
12/06/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/29/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/13/07… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
04/23/07… Higher S&P close one session later
04/17/07… Higher S&P close one session later
02/15/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/30/06… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/17/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/30/06… Higher S&P close one session later
11/18/05… Higher S&P close one session later
05/27/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/19/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/01/05… Higher S&P close one session later
10/04/04… Higher S&P close one session later
04/05/04… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
12/02/03… Higher S&P close two sessions later
In 26 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 87% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close (above the setup day’s close) within the next two days, significantly above the 67% at-any-time odds for a higher close within two sessions in the same time frame.
Follow Up to ‘On Watch for a Rally Day After a Gap’
By Rennie on Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009 at 3:57 pmAs a quick follow up to my previous post, I would add that the higher close isn’t what makes this pattern – it’s the higher high and higher low after a gap that’s truly short-term bullish. Whether the S&Ps settle higher isn’t that significant. Here’s a look at all instances in which S&P futures posted a higher high and low after an upside gap (regardless of whether the close was positive or negative)…
S&P Futures Higher High & Low after Upside Gap
12/02/09… ???
11/10/09… Higher S&P close one session later
10/15/09… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/09/09… Higher S&P close one session later
09/09/09… Higher S&P close one session later
08/24/09… Higher S&P close one session later
07/16/09… Higher S&P close one session later
06/02/09… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
05/05/09… Higher S&P close one session later
04/13/09… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
11/25/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/02/08… Higher S&P close one session later
03/19/08… Higher S&P close one session later
12/24/07… Higher S&P close one session later
12/06/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/29/07… Higher S&P close one session later
07/13/07… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
04/23/07… Higher S&P close one session later
04/17/07… Higher S&P close one session later
02/15/07… Higher S&P close two sessions later
11/30/06… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/17/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/30/06… Higher S&P close one session later
11/18/05… Higher S&P close one session later
05/27/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/19/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/01/05… Higher S&P close one session later
10/04/04… Higher S&P close one session later
04/05/04… No higher close next 1-2 sessions
12/02/03… Higher S&P close two sessions later
In 26 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 87% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close (above the setup day’s close) within the next two days, significantly above the 67% at-any-time odds for a higher close within two sessions in the same time frame.