Shallow Pullback Following Monday’s Upside Gap

S&P futures going for a bullish ‘gap & go’ price pattern Tuesday. We’ve already put in a higher high and higher low, so all that’s left to fulfill the pattern is a close above yesterday’s settlement. Should that occur, it would have bullish implications looking out to Thursday’s close. When a rally day immediately follows an upside gap, it’s a sign that bullish momentum remains intact, and the S&P is typically trading flat-to-higher two sessions later. The last thirty times that the front-month S&P contract posted a higher high, low and close immediately after an unfilled upside gap are listed in the table below…

S&P Futures Post Higher High, Low & Close After Upside Gap
10/15/09… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
10/09/09… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
09/09/09… S&P futures +0.9% two sessions later
07/16/09… S&P futures +1.4% two sessions later
06/02/09… S&P futures -0.2% two sessions later
05/05/09… S&P futures +0.4% two  sessions later
04/13/09… S&P futures -0.6% two sessions later
11/25/08… S&P futures +4.9% two sessions later
04/17/08… S&P futures +1.2% two sessions later
04/02/08… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
12/24/07… S&P futures -1.1% two sessions later
12/06/07… S&P futures +0.8% two sessions later
11/29/07… S&P futures +0.3% two sessions later
07/13/07… S&P futures -0.1% two sessions later
04/17/07… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
02/15/07… S&P futures +0.2% two sessions later
11/30/06… S&P futures +0.6% two sessions later
08/17/06… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
11/18/05… S&P futures +1.0% two sessions later
05/27/05… S&P futures +0.1% two sessions later
05/19/05… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
02/01/05… S&P futures +0.0% two sessions later
10/04/04… S&P futures +0.6% two sessions later
04/05/04… S&P futures -0.5% two sessions later
11/25/03… S&P futures +0.4% two sessions later
03/14/03… S&P futures +4.0% two sessions later
01/03/03… S&P futures +1.5% two sessions later
11/15/02… S&P futures -1.2% two  sessions later
10/14/02… S&P futures +2.5% two sessions later
07/30/02… S&P futures -2.4% two  sessions later

Note that in 23 out of 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&Ps settled at a higher level two sessions later, well above the 52% random odds of a higher S&P two days later.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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