Institutions Remain Better Sellers, NDX Holding Firm
By
Rennie on Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Market under pressure Thursday as institutions remain better sellers (TICKscore -27). With the S&P down 1% on the session, it’s noteworthy that the NDX is outperforming significantly, currently off 0.4%. When the S&P500 closes down 1%+, the Nasdaq100 (NDX) typically suffers a similarly large loss. But when the NDX manages to hold its own in the face of a solid down day for the S&P, it suggests limited selling pressure and/or a rotational environment. Typically, the market is trading higher three sessions later. Each of the last thirty instances in which the NDX settled down less than 0.5% (or managed a gain) on a day when the S&P fell over 1% are listed in the table below. Note that in 24 out of 30 cases, or 80% of the time, the S&P closed at a higher level three sessions later, significantly above the 54% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P three days later in the same time frame…
S&P500 Drops 1%+, Nasdaq Down Less than 0.5%
10/26/09… S&P500 -0.1% three days later
06/03/09… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
05/15/09… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/11/09… S&P500 -1.8% three days later
04/27/09… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/19/09… S&P500 +2.8% three days later
02/20/09… S&P500 -0.7% three days later
10/29/08… S&P500 +3.9% three days later
10/10/08… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% three days later
08/12/08… S&P500 +0.7% three days later
07/31/08… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
07/15/08… S&P500 +3.8% three days later
05/23/08… S&P500 +1.6% three days later
06/13/06… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/12/05… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/09/05… S&P500 -0.0% three days later
04/16/03… S&P500 +3.6% three days later
01/22/03… S&P500 -3.5% three days later
10/09/02… S&P500 +8.3% three days later
09/24/02… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
04/29/02… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/06/00… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
02/16/00… S&P500 -2.6% three days later
05/27/99… S&P500 +1.1% three days later
01/14/99… S&P500 +3.7% three days later
07/09/97… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/13/97… S&P500 +0.0% three days later
04/10/96… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
02/20/96… S&P500 +2.9% three days later
Institutions Remain Better Sellers, NDX Holding Firm
By Rennie on Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 3:13 pmMarket under pressure Thursday as institutions remain better sellers (TICKscore -27). With the S&P down 1% on the session, it’s noteworthy that the NDX is outperforming significantly, currently off 0.4%. When the S&P500 closes down 1%+, the Nasdaq100 (NDX) typically suffers a similarly large loss. But when the NDX manages to hold its own in the face of a solid down day for the S&P, it suggests limited selling pressure and/or a rotational environment. Typically, the market is trading higher three sessions later. Each of the last thirty instances in which the NDX settled down less than 0.5% (or managed a gain) on a day when the S&P fell over 1% are listed in the table below. Note that in 24 out of 30 cases, or 80% of the time, the S&P closed at a higher level three sessions later, significantly above the 54% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P three days later in the same time frame…
S&P500 Drops 1%+, Nasdaq Down Less than 0.5%
10/26/09… S&P500 -0.1% three days later
06/03/09… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
05/15/09… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/11/09… S&P500 -1.8% three days later
04/27/09… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/19/09… S&P500 +2.8% three days later
02/20/09… S&P500 -0.7% three days later
10/29/08… S&P500 +3.9% three days later
10/10/08… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
10/08/08… S&P500 +1.9% three days later
08/12/08… S&P500 +0.7% three days later
07/31/08… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
07/15/08… S&P500 +3.8% three days later
05/23/08… S&P500 +1.6% three days later
06/13/06… S&P500 +2.3% three days later
05/12/05… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/09/05… S&P500 -0.0% three days later
04/16/03… S&P500 +3.6% three days later
01/22/03… S&P500 -3.5% three days later
10/09/02… S&P500 +8.3% three days later
09/24/02… S&P500 +1.0% three days later
04/29/02… S&P500 +1.8% three days later
03/06/00… S&P500 +0.8% three days later
02/16/00… S&P500 -2.6% three days later
05/27/99… S&P500 +1.1% three days later
01/14/99… S&P500 +3.7% three days later
07/09/97… S&P500 +1.2% three days later
03/13/97… S&P500 +0.0% three days later
04/10/96… S&P500 +1.4% three days later
02/20/96… S&P500 +2.9% three days later