Oversold and Losing Momentum
By
Rennie on Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator will close in extreme oversold territory for a second consecutive session Tuesday as long as breadth remains negative. The oversold condition is noteworthy given that we’re also seeing a contraction in ‘down volume’. The percentage of NYSE volume associated with declining issues is running 62%, well below Monday’s 87% level. Listed below are each of the last thirty separate instances in which the NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed in extreme oversold territory (<-200) two consecutive days and the NYSE Down Volume percentage contracted from the previous session. This highlights days in which the market is severely oversold and in the process of losing downside momentum…
NYSE McClellan <-200 Second Day, Down Volume % Contracts
10/02/09… S&P500 +2.9% two sessions later
09/02/09… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
06/23/09… S&P500 +2.8% two sessions later
06/17/09… S&P500 +1.2% two sessions later
03/06/09… S&P500 +5.3% two sessions later
03/03/09… S&P500 -2.0% two sessions later
11/20/08… S&P500 +13.2% two sessions later
10/10/08… S&P500 +11.0% two sessions later
10/08/08… S&P500 -8.7% two sessions later
07/03/08… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
06/27/08… S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
06/24/08… S&P500 -2.4% two sessions later
06/12/08… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
11/20/07… S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
11/12/07… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
08/16/07… S&P500 +2.4% two sessions later
08/01/07… S&P500 -2.2% two sessions later
07/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% two sessions later
07/25/07… S&P500 -3.9% two sessions later
05/18/06… S&P500 +0.0% two sessions later
10/13/05… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
03/23/05… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
05/10/04… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
04/30/04… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
04/15/04… S&P500 +0.6% two sessions later
08/06/03… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
06/24/03… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
07/23/02… S&P500 +5.1% two sessions later
09/21/01… S&P500 +4.8% two sessions later
09/18/01… S&P500 -4.7% two sessions later
In 23 out of 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P closed higher two sessions later, significantly above the 52% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P two days later in the same time frame.
Oversold and Losing Momentum
By Rennie on Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 at 3:19 pmThe NYSE McClellan Oscillator will close in extreme oversold territory for a second consecutive session Tuesday as long as breadth remains negative. The oversold condition is noteworthy given that we’re also seeing a contraction in ‘down volume’. The percentage of NYSE volume associated with declining issues is running 62%, well below Monday’s 87% level. Listed below are each of the last thirty separate instances in which the NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed in extreme oversold territory (<-200) two consecutive days and the NYSE Down Volume percentage contracted from the previous session. This highlights days in which the market is severely oversold and in the process of losing downside momentum…
NYSE McClellan <-200 Second Day, Down Volume % Contracts
10/02/09… S&P500 +2.9% two sessions later
09/02/09… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
06/23/09… S&P500 +2.8% two sessions later
06/17/09… S&P500 +1.2% two sessions later
03/06/09… S&P500 +5.3% two sessions later
03/03/09… S&P500 -2.0% two sessions later
11/20/08… S&P500 +13.2% two sessions later
10/10/08… S&P500 +11.0% two sessions later
10/08/08… S&P500 -8.7% two sessions later
07/03/08… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
06/27/08… S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
06/24/08… S&P500 -2.4% two sessions later
06/12/08… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
11/20/07… S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
11/12/07… S&P500 +2.2% two sessions later
08/16/07… S&P500 +2.4% two sessions later
08/01/07… S&P500 -2.2% two sessions later
07/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% two sessions later
07/25/07… S&P500 -3.9% two sessions later
05/18/06… S&P500 +0.0% two sessions later
10/13/05… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
03/23/05… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
05/10/04… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
04/30/04… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
04/15/04… S&P500 +0.6% two sessions later
08/06/03… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
06/24/03… S&P500 +0.2% two sessions later
07/23/02… S&P500 +5.1% two sessions later
09/21/01… S&P500 +4.8% two sessions later
09/18/01… S&P500 -4.7% two sessions later
In 23 out of 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P closed higher two sessions later, significantly above the 52% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P two days later in the same time frame.